Our lone early game is Army facing off against Wake Forest and once again I'm leaning on Army heavily to give Wake Forest all kinds of issues. This is the same Wake Forest team that had all types of issues with Liberty in week 1. I expect Army to pull an upset here as they are better than they have played and the offense seemed to have clicked last week. Wake Forest's run defense has struggled early allowing 6.2 yards per carry and this is a team that has not seen the triple option in over year as they did not face Georgia Tech a year ago. The big key here is they are likely without their man on the interior in Nikita Whitlock. Whitlock would be the key to stopping the triple option and I think allowing 385 yards to Florida State is just a sign of things to come.
On the flip side Army should turn out a better performance on the defense side of the ball. For one Wake Forest is 121st in the nation converting just 18% of their third downs and although they have a solid veteran at QB in Tanner Price he is passing behind a completely rebuilt offensive line with 4 new starters. Look for Army to improve with the addition of DE Jarret Mackey coming back after missing the first few games. Offensively Army will enjoy their 25th rank on 3rd down conversions and that's where this game will be decided because Wake is no better at stopping third downs ranked 73rd than they are at converting.
This is a strong lead generated by my formulas and my research is enough for a small play here with Duke's ability to put up points. Duke is 16th in passing this year behind an experienced QB in Sean Renfree who rarely gets sacked. That's convenient for Renfree returning home going against a Memphis defense that has yet to sack a QB. This game could get ugly as Duke should put up 40+ points and probably even 50. Don't look for Duke to sleep on Memphis as this team will be hungry for wins with an ACC schedule ahead of them. The defense has also shown an opportunistic side and that's something we look for in these games with large spreads.
