It's a huge match up between the two best teams in the Big Ten and I love Michigan State to defeat the Buckeyes for the second year in a row. For one there are a lot of question marks surrounding Ohio State. For one this is their firsst road game of the year and as good as their defense has looked at times their secondary has been a disaster at times and they haven't faced any capable offenses with total offensive ranks of opponents ranked - 75, 78, 71, and 99th. Michigan State is by no means an elite offense ranked 62nd, but in the end it will be the better defense winning this game.
I"m still not even sold on the Buckeyes rush defense which is ranked 35th allowing 121.8 yards per game. Keep in mind this is a team that on the road last year allowed 187.5 yards per game. They have some serious questions up front and have not lived up to the hype and have gotten away because the secondary has come up with 7 interceptions. I think Michigan State QB has already played in two big games against Notre Dame and Boise State that has allowed him to have more sense of confidence as we look towards this big game. IT also doesn't hurt that Michigan State is home. Michigan State is also 9th against the run and has the best trio of linebackers in the country (arguably). Ohio State has faced run defenses ranked 96th, 104th, 120th, and 65th. Michigan State is also 3rd in completion % defense so Braxton Miller is going to have a hard time getting this offense going and at some points he's going to force a few bad plays leading to interceptions. It'll be close throughout but Le'Veon Bell should take this game over. This game reminds me of when Ohio State lost on the road to Nebraska last year where Nebraska was able to control the game with the run and play excellent defense. In that game Ohio State was actually able to run to 5.9 ypc and that's just not going to happen on the road against this Michigan State front 7.
Arizona State shocked me last week putting up 37 points against Utah's stingy defense and I'm now a believer. It seems like Todd Graham's spread offense is more of a fit in the PAC 12 after all. After little success with Pitt in the Big East it seems like Graham has the speed and athleticism to play the style of football he wants. Taylor Kelly has been amazing completing 71.7% of his passes for 1000 yards and 6 TD's while limiting the turnovers with just 2 interceptions. They will go on the road to play an inconsistent California team that has started with a rough schedule and is off to a 1-3 start. I think Cal is in for another tough match up because Arizona States defense is also playing well as they are top 10 in sacks, tackles for loss, and pass defense and they also have 8 interceptions already.
California have a veteran QB in Zach Maynard and arguably the most talented player on the field in WR Keenan Allen, but their offensive line is in shambles and they have already allowed 18 sacks. They have just 1 offensive linemen with any real starting experience due to injuries. Arizona's aggressive style should allow them to force some turnovers as Maynard has never been known for his carefulness. Defensively you should watch out for DT Will Sutton he's arguably the best defensive player in the PAC 12 right now and JC transfer Chris Young is having quite a start for the Sun Devils with 8.5 TFL already. In the end it's going to come down to Cal's inability to win close games and keep the chains moving. Offensively they are 113th with a 27.91 % converting third downs. They really are going to struggle with that offensive line and Arizona State's aggressive approach. Look for Arizona State offensively to take the ball out of Taylor Kelly's hand and put it in the hands of their electrifying RB's with Cameron Marshal, DJ Foster and Marion Grice all capable of breaking one while Cal's defense has been suspect against the run allowing 5.2 ypc. Cal's pass rush has not been that good with just 3 sacks in 3 games and if you can't get to the QB you won't stop Todd Graham's spread.
