Baylor has an even bigger Texas rivalry up next when they go on the road to face Texas, but first they play against TCU who is trying to revenge their loss last year to open up the 2011 season when they lost 50-48. TCU is actually limping into this game without their QB Casey Pachall and some RB depth has had an impact, but I think we get tons of value because of that and I"m not going to over react to TCU's loss at Iowa State. TCU turned the ball over 5 times last week and tha'ts not going to happen again this week.
Baylor is dead last in pass defense and really has no semblance of a pass rush and their run defense is allowing 5.1 yards per carry. red shirt freshmen QB Trevone Boykin will have a better time going up against this defense than he did going up against Iowa State and the two best LB's in the Big 12 that they possess. Boykin will make lots of plays with his feet in this game and I really think it's something that Baylor is not prepared for despite having a bye. TCU also has excellent receivers that are not far off from the West Virginia group that torched Baylor's secondary. TCU has a good mix of speed and strength with JOsh Boyce, Brandon Carter and Skye Dawson who is a real threat to take it all the way.
For as good as Baylor's offense has been people do not realize they have been mediocre on third down converting just 25% at home 5-20 against SMU and Sam Houston State. Baylor is also dead last 124th in third down defense while TCU is #1 in the nation in third down defense 21.43% conversions allowed 18% on the road. Now flip that over and TCU has struggled on third down, but facing Baylor's defense will definitely give TCU a bump in confidence they'll need for the rest of the Big 12 season.
For me each teams strength is a push. Tennessee's passing game vs. the NFL talent that Miss State has in their secondary with Johnathan Banks and Darius Slay. Both offensive lines don't allow sacks and both teams defensive lines don't get sacks. However, Tenn is off a bye, but Derek Dooley has proven to me that he's just not a good coach and he's actually 2-10 in the last three years in road games in the SEC. Miss State is a very capable team especially at home and Tennessee has Alabama looming the following week so you can bet at least some of the players have been looking ahead.
In a game where it is strength for strength I look at some important factors and that's turnovers. This game will be decided on turnovers and MIss State has 9 interceptions already in 5 games and Bray already has thrown 6 and as a team the Volunteers have thrown 7. Miss State QB's have thrown just 2 interceptions. Miss State is 17th in opposing QB ratings allowing 106 and they have been better at home allowing 88 rating. Okay they haven't played anyone, but dating back to last year this group did the same they were ranked 27th overall and held opposing QB's to a 93.4 rating which was among the best in the nation. Tennessee also has the tendency to give up big plays and Miss State has a big plya weapon in Sr WR Chad Bumphis who has 6 TD on 21 receptions for 375 yards. The Volunteers CB's have proved nothing other than they are poor tacklers.
Some other intangibles other than the fact that Dooley is just not a very good coach is that Tennessee's kicker has missed extra points in 4 of 5 games this year, they are 73rd in penalties and are 121st in ypc allowed allowing 6.1 ypc. Look for Miss State to win a close defensive slug fest 24-17.
