Don't miss out as I went 6-3 ats last week including 2-1 during the week! Tonight we have a 4.4** winner and we went 2-0 last week on these plays! This play comes with a full in depth analysis guaranteed or one day is free.


Arkansas State +4.5 4.4* NCAAF POD
This is a huge game for both parties in the Sun Belt race and should hold a playoff type atmosphere.  As good as Louisiana Lafayette’s defense had been specifically against the run it got exposed by North Texas last week as they gave up 524 yards of total offense and 240+ yards rushing.  Arkansas state is very capable of going on the road and getting a big win they are 5-0 in their last 5 conference road games and you can not look into their home/away splits too much as they visited Oregon in the beginning of the season and Nebraska after.  Both of those teams are two of the best at running the ball so I wouldn’t sleep on Arkansas State’s ability to stop the run in this game and make Terrance Broadway beat them.
 
It helps tremendously that the Red Wolfes have an extra three days of preparation.  I think that along with having more offensive balance and the extra time along with the more experience at QB will allow them to win and cover this game.  Ryan Aplin is very experienced and has plenty of balance has his rushing attack is averaging 5.1 yards per carry.  If Aplin does not turn the ball over I don’t see any reason for them not to win this game or cover as 9 of the last 12 meetings have been decided by 6 points or less.  Aplin has 11 TD to 2 interceptions and is completing more passes than Broadway.  Neither team can get to the QB and both are top 50 in protecting their QB.  The difference will be experience and what happens on third down and in the red zone.
 
Of course these are my favorite stats and you have to take them with a grain of salt.  You must consider strength of schedule at early points in the season, but Aplin and the Red Wolfes had 27 first downs at Oregon to open the year up.  Granite a lot of that happened in garbage time, but Oregon’s second team is still better than Lafayette’s 1st team.  Lafayette  is 100th allowing 46.5% conversions, 42% in conference while Arkansas State’s stats are not much better 44.68%, 38% conference.  Offensively it’s much more of an advantage. Arkansas State is 43rd converting 42.86% and 46% in conference play while the Rajin Cajuns are 85th converting just 35.82% and 30.7% in conference plays.  The move to Broadway will help those stats because he’s dual threat, but I still don’t trust him in a game of this magnitude.  In the red zone the stats are similar with both teams above 60% in TD% while Arkansas State seems more capable 71.4% of red zone trips are TD’s while Lafayette is at 66% in conference.  Defensively both teams are pretty identical at 60% on the year and have been even better in conference play, but I look at Arkansas State’s schedule and I see a team that has played better offenses with more balance.

Where to find Freddy?