FREDDY WILLS RELEASED PICK - CLEMSON/WAKE O58.5 (WOW)
Oct 25, 2012 12:01 AM Freddy Wills
SUBSCRIBE NOW to receive sports pick alerts by text message or email.
You just canât beat Clemson with defense especially a team of Wake Forestâs caliber. Wake Forest has played offenses without a pulse for most of the year and so we get a decent total here, but Clemson should score 30+ points tonight and it should start right away. Clemson is trying to make a statement here tonight and they should be able to. They are 26th in 1 quarter scoring and 1st in 2nd quarter scoring. Wake Forest is also scoring 9 pts per game in the first quarter at home. I expect this game to get off to a fast start. Neither team can make stops on run defense, Clemson allowing 5.5 ypc good for 112th while Wake Forest 72nd. Wake Forests running game just is not good enough to dominate the time of possession and take advantage of Clemsonâs weakness and will be forced to pass.
Clemson is 8th in plays per game with 84 plays per game. The only other time Wake Forest played a team that is in the top tier of plays per game was Army who is 12th and in that game the two combined for 86 points. Clemson played a similar team to Wake Forest in terms of plays per game in Boston College. BC put up 31 points and they are ranked 104th in plays per game, but was forced to play a style like Clemson in order to keep up and I expect the same here tonight.
Thatâs a lot of pressure on QB Tanner Price who just hasnât played well completing barely 50% of his passes, but heâs been better at home 60% of his passes and he gets his favorite target in Michael Campanaro back tonight which should help them score more points. It also helps that Clemson has allowed a 148 QB rating on the road and that they are having major issues in the secondary that has injuries and they are moving guys out of position. I expect Wake to take advantage.
Finally there is a perception with this total that Clemson played good defense last week, but in my opinion they just got lucky with 4 turnovers. Virginia Techâs offense has been a mess all year with penalties and turnovers. Wake Forest is 15th in least penalties and 23rd in least turnovers per game. Clemson also is allowing more than 4 red zone attempts per game and 61% TDâs and Wake Forest is scoring 68% TDâs 84% at home. They should move the ball in this game and get 7 points not 3 more often than not. Clemson on the other hand shouldnât be stopped in this game and now that Watkins is back at WR this offense is even more dangerous. They convert 52% of third downs; Wake is allowing 50% conversions at home. They too should have success in the red zone. They go up against a defense that is allowing 72% red zone TD percentage at home and Clemsonâs offense is clicking 70% TDâs when they get in the RZ. This is the best offense Wakeâs defense has faced all year.
Where to find Freddy?