I like Louisville in this spot tonight as they were clearly looking ahead to this game on their calendar and it showed when they struggled against South Florida. The biggest difference in this game is the QB and Louisville holds a significant advantage there with Munchie Legaux coming off his first road game this year throwing 2 INT's and now he'll play in an even more hostile environment. Legaux has completed just 44% of his throws on the road and 53% overall, while Bridgewater has been elite like with 73% completions and 80% at home which include 7 TD and 0 INT's!
Louisville's run defense has also been better ranked 48th to the Bearcats 67th ypc run defense. Cinci has given up 5.1 ypc on the ground on the road and will have their hands full with 2 capable RB's and a mobile QB in Bridgewater. Louisville now has lost to Cinci 4 years in a row and many of the players know this is the hump they have to get over and I think they will here tonight. Cinci will also be without their leader on defense in Walter Stewart who is their top pass rusher that should go along way as Louisville is 6th in third down conversions . I think they'll be able to convert on this Cinci defense that's having issues stopping the run. Louisville's offense also has been great in the red zone converting 80% of their trips into TD's compared to Cinci's 59% and their offense has struggled in conference games just 5 RZ trips for the Bearcats resulting in 2 TD's. I think Louisville has a significant advantage there as well.
We started to see it last game with Louisville getting a bit more aggressive on defense led by DE Lorenzo Mauldin and I think we see it again under the lights on Friday. It's a big key when Louisville or any defense can concentrate on a one dimensional offense like Cinci. I wouldn't be afraid of Legaux's ability other than the deep threats because he's just not accurate. I expect Louisville to force him into turnovers as this is his biggest game of his career. Meanwhile Bridgewater seems cool as a cucumber and should be able to move this offense. This is the best QB Cinci's defense has faced this year as they've faced 2 FCS foes and a group of over rated teams with the exception of Toledo who upset them last week.
