NC State played their biggest rival last week in North Carolina and blew a 4th quarter 10 point lead in dramatic fashion. A hang over is clearly in order. In fact this speaks to as how big of a game that was for both UNC and NC State as they are 0-19 ATS in their following game when they are favorites (NC St is -10.5 vs. Virginia) as long as neither team was favored in the rivalry by more than 11 points and NC State was +7.5 vs. UNC.

Virginia comes off a bye and is technically still alive for a bowl game if they can win out, which I'm sure they are believing considering they play Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech to close out the season. Not to look ahead but this team can get some momentum coming off a bye. Their issues are pretty clear, turnovers. They are -16 on the season, and it is their easiest issue to fix and that's something that can be done with an effecient game plan and that's what I think we will see with a heavy does of talented RB Perry Jones and Kevin Parks. You wouldn't believe it if I told you but Virginia is actually on the positive end of total yards in all of their last 4 games while NC State is negative in their last 3. NC State also allows less yards and both teams have had similar schedules. It tells me that we are getting tremendous value at 10.5 points especially since Virginia's defensive strength is stopping the pass, ranked 25th in opponent completion % and that's NC State's strength as they have only averaged 3.3 ypc on the season. Virginia's defense has actually allowed 60 yards less per game than NC State who have shown some cracks in their own defense. Those are the things I'm talking about that when a team comes off a bye they can take advantage of. I wouldn't be shocked to see Virginia win this game.

Where to find Freddy?