The Falcons have had one of the easiest schedules all year. I don't think they have even played a playoff team with the exception of the Broncos in week 2, but in week 2 the Broncos were clearly not a playoff team with Manning still playing off his rust.
The Cowboys have played 5 playoff teams in their 8 games and now they'll play their 6th and they absolutely can be the team to beat the Falcons. Takeaway Romo's turnovers and the penalties and the Cowboys are a better team. Unfortunately it is not that easy, but those are two things you can actually fix and I think we have already seen a game plan that's adapted to limiting the turnovers. Over the last 3 games the Cowboys have averaged 30 rushes per game. They run the ball 10.8 more times per game on the road than at home and if they stick to that formula that has had them in games they should be able to beat the Falcons who are 1 of 2 teams allowing over 5 yards per carry on the road and at home and they will be without their leading tacklers in Sean Wetherspoon.
Again this game is going to come down to third down because I believe it will be tight throughout. Atlanta is 28th in red zone defense and allowing 87.5% TD's at home while Dallas is 14th, but on third down Dallas is 7th holding opponents to just 34% conversions while the Falcons are 24th allowing 42.35% conversions. On offense Atlanta is 3rd overall, but are only converting 34% at home. I guess they played some good defenses? Nope, they played 17th, 26th and 20th ranked third down defenses at home and produced just 34% conversions. Dallas meanwhile has converted 44% 7th overall and 48% on the road. I think this game will be there for the Cowboys to win and they certainly need it.
