Arkansas State -7 2.2* play
LA Monroe comes into this game really banged up and it is a shame since this is arguably the game for the Sun Belt title, but Arkansas State will have major advantages. Monroe lost their starting QB Kolton Browning who led the Sun Belt in passing offense and added 426 yards on the ground. He was a huge part of the offense 66% of the yards came from him and now they do replace him with Cody Wells, but Wells does not pose the same threat on the ground and heâs not nearly as accurate. There is a reason why this senior has not gotten much playing time since his freshmen year. In fact in 226 career passing attempts he has 14 interceptions. Thatâs an interception every 16 attempts and Monroe has gotten by this year leading the Sunbelt at +7 turnover margin while Arkansas State is +5. I see Wells throwing a few interceptions in this game as Arkansas State has 8 interceptions in their last 6 games alone. Even head coach Todd Berry said âit changes some of the dynamics.â Referring to having to start a back up QB, and if that was not enough they will also be without their top 2 RB in Edwards and Donald. It seems like the head coach and leader is making excuses, âlack of depth showing.â
On the flip side you have an Arkansas State offense that should be able to do what it wants here tonight. Laffayette just put up 373 yards passing, and 234 yards rushing on LA Monroe in their victory, and Arkansas State is much more effective. Expect Ryan Aplin to continue his brilliant play as he has completed 68% of his passes in conference play with 14 TDâs and just 2 interceptions on the season. RB David Oku is a game changer and has the speed to break away at any moment.
Virginia Tech +14 4.4* NCAAF POD; Vtech +455 1.5* bonus
Big play on the Hokies tonight as they have played poor football of late losing 4 of their last 5 but they remain undefeated at home. Tonight Lane Stadium should be rocking and it will be about 34 degrees at kick off. Just a little frigid for those Florida boys, but also more than anything the Hokies still have a ton to play for. They can still get into the ACC Championship game, if they win out which is possible if they win tonight and if Miami loses twice which is clearly possible since Miami has to play two tough road games at Virginia and at Duke while UNC is not eligible here.
Thatâs not the only reason Iâm banking VT to cover and have a chance to win. There is a misconception about this teams talent and what they have done on defense. This defense has been put into bad situations, short field because of special team disasters and turnovers. Turnovers have been the biggest culprit. They outplayed Miami last week when we had VT , but 2 turnovers inside the 20 did not help. They were -3 in turnover margin for the second game in a row, but I am confident thatâs going to change tonight. Florida State is 106th in the nation in takeaways and had 4 turnovers themselves in their last game. Virginia Tech who is 4-0 at home is actually +1.7 in turnover margin per game at home and -2.2 on the road. I expect the Hokies to take care of the ball and be in a close game all night long.
The other reason which has led to so many turnovers is the offensive line and protection on Logan Thomas who can make all the throws. Florida State is only 81st in sack % while Vtech has protected Thomas better at home where they get a bit of an advantage getting off the ball with crowd noise. Vtechâs defense should be able to create pressure especially at home where they are sacking opposing QBâs 8.26% of the time, while Florida State is just 77th in protecting their QB EJ Manuel, and allowing 8.42 % sack percentage on the road. Luther Maddy and DE James Gayle should play a critical role in this game.
The last two years Florida State have come off byes and lost games on the road to North Carolina and Wake Forest. Playing at Lane Stadium on a Thursday night with the season goals on the line is going to be a major challenge for Florida State especially without their most explosive offensive player Chris Thompson.
