A good indication is what each team did against Tulsa. And there is a 464 yard difference as Marshall was +221 while Houston was -243 yards. Both teams are fighting for bowl eligibility and right now Marshall just seems like the better team to me as Tulsa just does not seem to be there emotionally after losing two of their best players in Charles Simms on offense and then DJ Hayden on defense who had a near death experience in practice. Houston's 110th ranked pass defense must go up against Marshal's 3rd ranked passing offense.
Rakeem Cato has been great all season long completing nearly 70% of his throws and has 16 TD to 2 interceptions in his home games. He's not likely to be pushed by Houston's defense on Saturday and that's a good thing for Marshall who is +7 in turnover in their last 3 games while Houston is 105th in the nation in turnover margin. Marshall has also converted 57% of their third downs at home while Houston is allowing 56% conversions over their last three. David Piland is just not at the same level as he has only converted 57% of his passes and has thrown 12 interceptions he goes up against a Marshall defense that has been bad, but ranked 54th vs. the pass and allowing just 58% completion percentage at home. Marshall is +11 in red zone attempts and has converted 21% more into TD's while their defense has allowed 10 less RZ attempts and has been better in conference play. Marshall has under achieved this year and should be able to come together and beat an emotionally unstable Houston team.
Rutgers is the best defense by far that the Cinci Bearcats have faced and their strengths match up perfectly with Cinci's strengths. The last defense they faced was Virginia Tech and they only averaged 3.2 ypc, and that will be the key for Rutgers on Saturday, stop the run.
Rutgers is 17th in the nation in stopping the run and 14th allowing just 3.2 ypc on the season and 2.8 ypc on the road. Cinci's rushing offense is averaging 5.9 ypc at home and 5.6 ypc overall behind George Winn, but those numbers are inflated big time. Not only have they faced two FCS foes, but they have faced run defense that have the following ypc averages based on where Cinci played them (home or away) - 5.2, 4.2, 4.8, 4.9, 5.9, 4.8, 4.6. Now they'll face Rutgers who is at 2.8 ypc at home and you better believe they are ready to stop Cinci's rushing attack again starting wtih DT Scott Vallone who can plug the hole allowing LB's to make tackles for loss.
If they can stop the run they'll force in inexperienced QB to throw and Rutgers is #1 in takeaways in the Big East. QB Brendan Kay takes over for Munchie Legeaux who was terrible this year. Kay is a 5th year senior who has little playing experience and that's for a reason, he's just not good. Kay did look good in relief and then against Temple going 13-21 for 244 and 2 TD's, but Temple's defense has been awful against the pass ranked 92nd while Rutgers is 26th.
On the flip side Rutgers is going to have to score points something they've been struggling to do, but Gary Nova will have an advantage in this game as his three starting receivers have significant height advantages over Cinci's 75th ranked pass defense. Look for turnovers to play a critical role in a tight played game and Rutgers is 6th in the country in that category.
