The Lions have had 5 losses by 8 points or less and the Texans are now 10-1 against a weak schedule in my opinion. No team runs more on the road than the Texans and the Lions have had issues defending the run, but looking at some of the key details of this game I'm confident the Lions will solve some of this in combination with the Texans inability to run the ball consistently.
First of all ever since Ben Tate got injured this team has not nearly been the same and he's unlikely to play again. The Texans have leaned more on the pass and have run the ball 47% of the time over the last 3 which is about 8% less than they did all year. That has resulted in them converting third downs just 30% of the time over their last 3 games which could be a huge benefit to the Lions if they can stop the Texans on first down running the ball.
Speaking of which, the Lions run defense has improved since last year and only allows 4.2 ypc at home, but looking at the stat in more depth you'll find that the Lions Defense has had to face an average 11.4th ranked rushing offense. Meanwhile the Texans are really only ranked 21st in ypc rushing offense which to me is not that impressive and won't win you games on the road vs. a high profiled offense as in the Lions. Houston's run defense which is ranked 9th also not that impressive as they rarely face any teams that can run the ball an average 19.8th ranked rushing offense. It's hard to argue that the Texans are not the better rushing offense and rushing defense, but on the road and looking at who each team has played it's definitely a lot closer than man realize.
Next, The Lions have the #1 passing offense, and that's mostly due to the fact that they pass much more than they run. The Texans have not had to pass any decent passing games with just 1 in the top 10 and that was Peyton Manning who threw for 330 yards in week 3 when he was still shaking off the rust. The other was the Packers ranked 11th and the Packers moved the ball at well in a 42-24 win in Houston. We just saw Chad Henne and the Jaguars who are ranked 25th at passing the ball pass for 354 yards and 4 TD's. The Texans could be without Jonathan Joseph which could be a huge issue against a good passing team like the Lions. It's a hamstring injury which to me means even if he plays he won't be 100% those injuries tend to linger.
The Lions also have the advantage in the red zone and third down. Their offense is ranked 13th and converting 47% of third downs, and their red zone defense is ranked 3rd allowing just 38% TD's in the red zone. While the Texans are ranked #1 in third down defense I expect them to struggle a bit because they will be facing a pass first team one they have not faced in quite a while. Lions are also converting red zone trips into TD's at a high rate 75% over their last 3 and 60% good for 8th on the season while the Texans are ranked 10th, but only convert about 50% of their RZ trips into TD's.
think the injuries are too much for the Texans to overcome in this game. The Lions are desperate for a win at 4-6 to keep their playoff hopes alive and I think they'll get it breaking their losing streak on Thanksgiving Day of 9 straight years.
