Texas normally would play Texas A&M, but with the Aggies off to the SEC that ended one of the oldest rivalries and here comes TCU who used to play Texas in the SWC and actually have 82 total match ups with Texas. It's a great transition for Thanksgiving and will be an interesting match up for Texas who for the first time in a long time won't have the best defense on the field on Thanksgiving.
Both teams are off a bye week and I think that's even more important for a TCU team that needed the rest as they are very young. You have to wonder how much Texas was looking ahead to Kansas State who was likely to be undefeated but were shocked by Baylor. When the game starts Texas offense which has clicked at time this year will have several things they have not seen this year. TCU's defense has always been good and they are known for holding Kansas State to a season low 260 yards. Texas has dominated and gotten by on offense by facing bad defenses. TCU is ranked 16th overall and more importantly 7th vs. the run. This is by far the best run defense Texas will face all year. Over their last 5 games they have faced run defense ranked 95, 90, 89, 71, and 61 and even the game before that vs. West Virginia ranked 30th is a bit of a misconception since everyone throws on West Virginia.
On the flip side TCU has had a tough schedule vs. run defense and Texas is ranked 100th in run defense, and that's good news for TCU because in their last game they could not protect their young talented QB. At least in this game they will be able to rely on the run. TCU is 3-1 on the road in the Big 12 this season because it's where they run the ball far more at a rate of 55%. If they follow that same script they should be well in this game especially since Texas could have issues on third down with TCU who is ranked 5th overall allowing just 28% third downs. That's important to note because of how over rated Texas offense is in this situation. Texas who has converted 52% of third downs has hardly faced any real defenses that can stop it and that's likely because of they have faced poor run defenses. Overall they have faced an average 86th third down defense. TCU is also 5th overall in takeaways this season and while Texas has been pretty good at holding onto the ball they have not been tested like this. I expect a close game and I would not be shocked if TCU pulled off the upset. Gary Patterson is a good coach and the extra rest was surely a benefit to his young team.
