New Orleans may be desperate for a win but they are coming off a short week having to travel after playing a hard hitting 49ers team. If this is not the right time for the Falcons to finally get the best of the Saints I don't know if there ever will be.
What I really expect is for the Falcons to get back to running the ball, but the emergence of Jacquiz Rodgers will be the difference in this game. The Saints are last in the league in ypc run defense and I see the Falcons getting back to that despite having a ton of success passing on the Saints last time. The difference in the game earlier in the season in New Orleans was the red zone and 4th downs. The Falcons were 0-2 on 4th downs, and they were just 3-6 in the red zone. Those two things will have to change at home facing the Saints defense that is far worse on the road allowing 70.83% TD's in the red zone. Atlanta got to the red zone 3 more times than the Saints and they'll need to capitlize on that and I believe they can at home.
Meanwhile the Falcons have been playing some pretty good pass defense, for one they are ranked among the leagues best in third down defense at home allowing opponents only 29% conversions and they are also far more capable ins topping passing attacks. They're 10th in sack % to the Saints 24th, and 10th in opponent passer rating to the Saints 29th ranking. The Saints are allowing a 113.1 QB rating in road games this year which is ranked 32nd. The defense is improving but they still are not getting any sort of a pass rush just 3.31% in their last 3 games and 3.35 % on the road. No pass rush, no run defense and an inability on the road to stop red zone TD's and the Falcons should control the clock convert third downs where they are ranked 2nd in the league and score TD's. I think the game total is way too high and this game should stay under despite two elite offense ranked in the top 10 in passing play %. Look for the Falcons to run more in this game.
