It's all going to come down to effectiveness in the red zone and I think the Saints are far more balanced offensively and have more red zone threats than the Cowboys do. Statistically the Saints are #2 in the league while the Cowboys are 26th in red zone offense. Third down defense will also be a key factor and that's where the Saints are playing really well of late holding opponents to 28% in their last 3 games combined while the Cowboys are holding opponents to 45.5% over their last 3.
I just don't see how Jerry Jones can tout his team if he's actually watched them at times this year. They are a team that's dead last in penalties per game 24th in turnover margin and when they can not sack the QB even their defense struggles. Drew Brees is 6th in sacked % with just 4% of his drop backs resulting in sacks. He should be able to work the middle of the field and take advantage of the Cowboys weakness.
Until I see the Bengals get by their two division rivals who they have lost 9 straight against I can't bet them. Pittsburgh off a big loss and returns home to take on the Bengals who they have dominated. Pittsburgh might actually get pressure on the QB in this game which could be a huge advantage for them. Andy Dalton is getting sacked more than 10% of his drop backs over the last 3 games and he's ranked 25th in the league on the year. The Steelers meanwhile feature Big Ben who we all know is capable of avoiding the rush and making plays which he'll have to here tonight. IN the first match up in Cinci the Steelers had 431 yards to the Bengals 184. Andy Dalton had just 105 yards passing on 14-28. Now this is not a huge play because the Steelers will be without Ike Taylor who shut down AJ Green the last time these two played, but even without Ike I think the Bengals have had too much trouble protecting the QB that they will lose. They have been winning games of late by running the ball not throwing, but against the Steelers they won't be able to run as Pittsburgh has allowed just 3.4 ypc on the season.
