I like Butler in this spot despite their 6-4 record on the road as I believe this team is starting to get up for the last few games of their conference season in order to go into the post season with a head of steam. Umass on the other hand is content after beating Xavier as a road dog and could be getting just a little too much credit here.
In conference play one this is for sure Butler has the better defense. They are also +1.2 FTA to Umass -1.3, +6.4 rebounds to Umass +1.7, and turnovers they lose the battle at -3.8 to Umass -0.5. Butler actually plays better defense ont he road holding opponents to 39.5% shooting. Butler will rely on the 2 point game 70% of the time on the road and Umass has shown a difficult time of late defending the 2 ranking 138th in the nation at 46.6%, and 52.4% over their last 3. They are no better at home just 46%.
Butler on the other hand is ranked 82nd in 2 point defense allowing 45.1% and they allow the same % on the road. Ironically Umass is 10-3 at home and their 3 losses came to the hands of the three teams that play excellent defense on the inside. They lost to Temple who is ranked 145th overall, but plays about the same on the road as Butler holding opponents to 45% inside. They lost to George Washington who was ranked 52nd in 2 point defense and plays worse on the road than Butler and then they lost to Miami ranked 44th in the country and also holding opponents to 45.3%. There seems to be a common ingredient in Umass home losses and Butler has it.
Pepperdine +3.5 -103 1.5* Free Play (based on a 1-5* scale)
Pepperdine lost both match ups against San Diego during the regular season and now they meet in the first round of the West Conference Tournament. What's interesting is that Pepperdine has the better overall statistical numbers compared with San Diego. I think they want to get the best of them in the tourney and to me that gives us value on this line.
First off all Pepperdine has the better defense by 2.2% in conference play while they shoot 72% of their shots from 2 point range. San Diego menawhile is 300th in 2 point % defense and even worse on the road allowing 52.5% from there. Pepperdine should improve their shooting performance from the first two games and be in position to win. To put that in perspective Pepperdine is ranked 79th in 2 point defense and allows 46.4% on the road.
Pepperdine despite getting out rebounded by 3 in two match ups is actually the better rebounding team % wise. San Diego is ranked 266th and has a 46.5% rate on the road to Pepp's 51.2% ont he road. When you add in that Pepperdine had to face San Diego this season after they lost to BYU and after they lost to Saint Mary's you could see why they may not have played their best basketball.
