This is an interesting game because Minnesota is off a 16 point loss and Houston is off a 30 point win thus this line is a bit inflated in my opinion. Houston is 4-12 ATS in theri last 16 vs a team with a losing SU record. Reason? I think they tend to rest some of their stars more since 80% of their points come from their starting 5. Given that they have a huge game up next with the Warriors on Sunday they should be heavily motivated to do the same thing.
Meanwhile Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a SU loss of 10+ points. Despite their 16 point loss they actually scored 91 points vs. the best defense in the league. A game before they beat the Spurs who are another top defense and if you recall they were in a battle with Miami in the 4th quarter before Miami turned it on late to win comfortably. Minnesota will have an opportunity to stick around in this game because Houston's 2 point defense is suspect and that's where Minnesota will take a huge percentage of their shots 78% of them. Minnesota has lost just 1 game by more than 14 on the road vs. a team ranked in the bottom 10 in 2 point defense and is 6-4 ATS. Houston ranks 22nd and add in that Houston takes too many 3 pointers they could easily struggle in a game. I look for the Twolves to stick around and continue to play spoiler.
Cleveland +8 2.2* bonus
Dallas has been playing extremely well, but this is going to be ahrd game for them on 0 days rest after losing a tough game with the Spurs. The Mavericks are trying to still make a run at the playoffs and are playing extremely well, but it's hard to see them not resting up a bit and crusiing in this one when they have the Thunder up next.
Cleveland meanwhile has been playing good enough of late and is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 while also going 5-1 ATS in their last 6 in Dallas. Dallas is on a rare hang over with a lookahead up next. I expect Dallas to win a close one as theya re -5.2 ppg on 0 days rest this season.
