<b>StonyBrook +4.5 4.4* NCAAB POD (1-5 SCALE)</b>
I think we are catching some good value with one of the betst teams out of the American East Conference. Umass may be a little foggy after losing in the A10 semifinals to VCU and we already know how Vegas and the general public love the A10 so I do believe we are getting an inflated line. Just how good is StonyBrook? Well they are the first American East team in conference history to have all three player of the year awards. They have the freshmen of the year, player of the year and defensive POY.
In addition looking at the stats I see that Stonybrook's size could be a real issue for a Umass team that relies on their game inside the 3 point line and Stony Brook is 10th in the nation allowing just 42% from 2 point range on the season and they were better on the road at 41.9%. Umass is 136th and even worse in 2 point defense at home allowing 47.2%. Stonybrook is also +1.6 TO so they won't allow Umass to get out in transition on turnovers or rebounds. Granted they play in a weaker conference, but the size they have in their front line should give Umass head aches scoring and rebounding. In additiona Umass is also just 3-11 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. I look for Stonybrook to win the game outright and move on to the next round of the NIT tournament.
<b>Houston +3 2.2* bonus (1-5 scale)</b>
Texas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA while Houston is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 at home vs a team with a losing road record as Texas is just 2-9 on the road. Though Houston did have more of a cupcake schedule, Texas was just a completely different team on the road this season. To put that in perspective they were 24th overall in 2 point defense, but on the road they allowed nearly 4% more on the 2pt FG% ranking 97th. The problem Texas will have is that they'll also have to guard the perimeter as Houston at home is a 41.7% shooting team from three. They're also the better rebounding team % wise overall and even better at home where they collect 54.2% of their rebounds. Texas will struggle in this game and I see Houston pulling off the upset in what should be an instate rivalry game.
