Florida is one of the few teams that is top 30 in 2 point, 3 point % offense and defense and that is what Michigan will have to contend with today after their dramatic OT win over Kansas. I see Michigan with a bit of a hang over here today as a veteran led Florida team should dominate this game from start to finish. The one theme that's true of this Michigan team is that they struggled when they faced a balanced offense or defense and Florida has both. Really the only team they beat this year that was an overall balanced team was Kansas and they had to come from 14 down to do it. Florida has much better guards than Kansas and I don't see that type of dramatic come back being a possibility in this game. Michigan went 1-4 vs. teams that were top 33 in both 2 point and 3 point defense losing twice to Indiana and Wisconsin and of course beating Kansas.
To put this in perspective Florida played Wisconsin earlier in the year and won by 18 points. They shot 61.9% from the field and that was against Wisconsin who is 26th vs. 2 pointers and 8th vs. the 3 ball. Florida was also +18 rebounds in that game and should have a sizeable advantage on second chance points today where they are ranked 65th overall in offensive rebound % with 33.8% while Michigan is ranked 168th in that category. Florida over its last 3 games though have been pulling down 37.8% rebounds. Overall Florida is the better team and I've been saying it all along that the Big Ten is a bit over rated and we saw it once again yesterday with Ohio State going down and today it will be Michigan's turn.
The only thing not making this a bigger play is the fact that Duke already beat Louisville this year and Louisville did not have Gorgui Dieng who has become one of the better stories in this tournament. I still like Duke to get to the Final Four regardless, but I think this game will be a lot tougher. Duke has really had the stronger schedule and the hard trip to get to this Elite 8 and I think that will help them along the way. When I looked at Louisville's non conference schedule and their 3 games in this tournament I really was not impressed. Duke is 11-0 vs. the top 100 in their out of conference schedule and they went 14-2 vs. teams in this years tournament. Their only 2 losses were on the road (Miami/NC State) without Ryan Kelly who has made all the difference in the world since he's come back. Louisville on the other hand is 12-5 vs. teams in the tournament.
Speaking of which Louisville has to be worried about Dukes offense as they can stretch a defense. Duke also is just 4th in turnovers per possession and actually was +1 in the turnover battle in the previous meeting. Louisville has played just a handful of top 100 3 point shooting offenses if you can believe that and only 2 in the top 50 (Duke, Memphis) and only 9 in the top 50 in 2 point % offense, and only a couple in the top 50 in turnover per possession %. This tournament their opponents were extremely weak in all three categories. Combine those rankings together they averaged 195th ranking nationally, where as Duke is 6th in 3point %, 4th in TO %, and 42nd in 2 point % for an average of 17. Duke is even playing better on defense over their last 5 games while Louisville's 3 point defense is starting to get exposed a bit as they have allowed 37.6% and I think that will be the difference as Duke can break the pressure and get good looks from the perimeter.
