I think we are getting tremendous value here with the Reds if you look at all of the facts. First of all the Angels are getting a lot of pre season hype and rightfully so after signing Josh Hamilton to add to that line up. So naturally we are going to get an inflated line on the side of the Angels early this season as the public will back them.
In this match up the pitching match up is pretty even among the starters. Johny Cueto has been a dominant force and so has Weaver. Cueto though has a 19-5 day record over the last 3 years with a 2.03 ERA and also posts a 2.58 ERA at home over that period of time while the Reds have won 17 of his last 21 home starts. Cueto is backed by the best bullpen in the game from last year which likely won't change as the Reds kept Chapman in the bullpen instead of moving him to the rotation. Broxton, Marshall and Lecure make up a deep bullpen for this Reds team.
Jered Weaver is always in the running for the Cy Young and last year was no different when he posted an ERA below 3. However his xFIP was 4.18 as it seemed he was very lucky with a .241 BABIP. He is a fly ball pitcher which could be dangerous playing in Cinci. The Reds traded for Shin-Soo Choo to upgrade their offense and it could pay dividends right away as Choo is 13-29 vs. Weaver. The Angels are backed by a poor bullpen that did get a few upgrades from last season, but Ryan Madson will start the year on the DL so once again their bullpen will be a real weakness. The Angels are also 0-5 in Weaver's last 5 starts as an under dog and he has a 3.42 ERA on the road over the last 3 years which is nearly a run higher than Cueto's production at home over that period of time. Reds also were 9th in OPS during game days to the Angels 16th ranking last year while their pitching ERA is #1 compared to the Angels 4.11 ERA (22nd) during day games.
