The time off yesterday was definitely needed. We will start with a value play early with the Angels as under dogs. On paper it appears the Reds have the advantage of playing the early game on the east coast with the better pitcher in Arroyo. However, Iâm going off raw stats and value here and not publicâs or the mediaâs perception. First of all you have to know the Reds were 23rd vs. RHP in OPS a year ago while the Angels were 5th. The Reds lost Ryan Ludwick, one of their best hitters on day 1 which impacted their line up significantly while the Angels added Josh Hamilton who will only improve their OPS vs. RHP this year.
Bronson Arroyo will take the mound for the Reds and heâs a durable pitcher and will be sure to make 33 starts, but in my opinion he pitched over his head quite a bit last year despite his 3.74 ERA he seemed quite a bit lucky only allowing 20 HR, 46 previous year. Arroyo had a 4.19 xFIP which is more indicative of his true ERA and he has struggled big time in interleague play of late and Albert Pujols is quite familiar with him and has 4 HR and a .900 OPS.
Joe Blanton on the other side has a ton of value not only in this season but moving forward. Heâs got the 4th best K/BB ratio at 5.7 last year and his Xfip is 3.39. His biggest issue is giving up HR, but the ball is not going to be carrying early in the season with the cold weather. Iâm not suggesting he wonât give up a lot of HRâs again this year, but in opportunities when home runs are not the norm (early season cold weather) we have to take full advantage of Blantonâs abilities which is throwing strikes and getting batters to miss.
Both pitchers will rely on not giving up HRâs and I think they will both be successful today so that turns the game into small ball and Blanton ranked 22nd best in contract rate while Arroyo was 8th worst allowing 85% of his pitches to be hit. He gave up 30 hits and a .333 average in sprint training and now he goes up against a talented line up. I expect him to have runners on base all day long. Can he win? Absolutely, but Iâll fade a pitcher as a favorite that will put more guys on base than his opponent.
