I really like the Rays in this spot today going up against the San Diego Padres and Edinson Volquez. Volquez has always been a pitcher who has struggled on the road and this year is no different he posts a 6.97 ERA in 4 road starts. We are getting a ton of value here because Mr. Volquez has a 2.33 ERA over his last three starts, but he faces his most challenging task here today. Why? Well I've studied Volquez the last few years and his biggest weakness is his control. He gets behind in counts and now he's not getting as many hitters to swing at things outside the zone which leads to good hitting counts especially on the road and he's getting hit hard. In fact when you take a look at his starts vs. top 15 teams in the league in BB's he's actually got a 8.05 ERA and a 1.84 WHIP. The Rays are 10th in BB's (1st in 2012), but what is even more impressive is there ability to get into good hitting counts. The Rays are 1st in outside the zone swing % at 23.8%. That's the least amount of swings at pitches outside the zone in the entire league. That's going to put them in great position tonight against Volquez. The Rays are also 3rd in OPS over the last 7 days and are sending a pretty good starter to the mound Friday night.
Alex Cobb has a 2.74 ERA over his last 15 home starts for the Rays and his xFIP is at 3.22 which tells me he is pretty close to what his ERA is telling us for this season. Cobb has actually posted better numbers this year at home 1.17 ERA over 3 home starts and 2 of the 3 was against teams ranked in the top 5 in OPS vs. RHP (Yankees and Indians). The Padres are ranked 22nd so he gets his easiest start of the year at home tonight. The Rays are 13-4 in his last 17 starts and 40-19 in their last 59 games as a favorite -151 to -200. I know -169 is not a ton of value to be chasing, but I still feel under normal circumstances this game would be more like -200+.
