I really like the under and expect it to drop. A few books have it around 187.5 if you can grab it at 187 you are in great shape. I think we are getting good value with the under in this game today. The more these two play the more familiar they are and the more the defenses step up. Both teams know they need the defense to step up in order to win. The Thunder do not have as many scoring options since losing Westbrook, and the Grizzlies are a half court team and they should dictate the pace in this game. I do not see Michael Conley going off like he did in Game 2 and the Thunder have had 3 days to prepare a defensive scheme. The 3 days off also helps both teams really be ready for this game defensively where they know they have to win the game.
Both teams are ranked 2nd and 3rd in effecient FG% defense. When facing the other top 5 teams this season on the road the Thunder are under the total 5 out of the 6 games while the Grizzles are under the total 4 out of the 6 games at home. Making it a 9-3 under situation. 1 of the overs came in an OT game for the Grizzlies, and when these teams met in Memphis during the regular season the game went under the total despite going to an OT. The Thunder are under the total 12-4 this season when playing on revenge and they are also 9-4 on the under in their last 13 with 3 or more days of rest.
I can not pass out on this value we have today with the Yankees with Andy Pettitte on the mound. Not only is he on an extra day of rest where the Yankees are 44-21 in his last 65 on 5 days rest, but they are 70-28 in the last 98 meetings with the Royals. Pettitte has had a very tough schedule of starts facing 34 teams in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP. Today he faces #11 which does not get much easier, but he's had a history of success against the Royals and at Kaufman Stadium where he posts a 2.47 ERA going back to the 2000 season. Overall he's 14-3 in 22 career starts vs. the Royals with 3.36 ERA and the Yankees have won 11 of his last 12 starts against them. The Royals over their last 5 games are only scoring 2.95 runs per 9 vs. LHP.
The Royals send James Shields to the mound who has pitched like the ace they thought they acquired. However, he's done so against weak competition. Despite facing 2 teams in the top 5 in OPS vs. RHP he's faced 5 in the bottom 15. The Yankees are 2nd with a .815 OPS vs. RHP and have hit even better on the road scoring 6.17 runs per 9 vs. RHP this season. Shields started 6 times vs. the Yankees last year posting a 6.03 ERA and despite the Yankees missing a lot of their great hitters they are still putting up great numbers vs. RHP. There are a few guys in this line up that have good numbers vs. Shields who is way over due for a poor start. Gardner is 9-31, while Cano has huge numbers going 31-75 with a .413 average. The Yankees will be well prepared because they know Shields pretty well and given the fact that they are a big dog I like the value we are getting.
