Scott Diamond's only bad start was his first start of the year against the Mets. He still posts a 3.03 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP to boot. Baltimore is 2-5 in their last 7 vs. a LH starter and they have only hit .220 and averaged 3 runs per 9 vs. LHP on the road this year. In comparison the Twins have hit .292 and have scored 7.60 runs per 9 vs. LHP this year with a strong bullpen at home 2.89 ERA. Baltimore too has had a strong bullpen this year, but they come into this game 3 having already pitched 10 innings in this series and I think that could be a huge factor on Sunday. Baltimore has also struggled more of late with the bats hitting just .143 and scoring just 1.83 runs per 9 over their last 10 games when facing LHP.
Diamond has been solid at home over his career of 17 starts he posted a 3.58 ERA and during day games 3.23 ERA before this year in 14 starts. Diamond is having an excellent year as a ground ball pitcher he's only allowing 0.61 HR/9 which is bad news for the Orioles who rely on the HR ball quite a bit to get their runs. Wei Yen Chen's numbers are down this year his K/9 are down to 5.10 and his walks are at 2.55 and it's mainly due to the fact that he's not getting hitters to chase outside the zone as his O-swing% is down to 26.4% from 31.9 a year ago. That's a major difference and the Twins are 8th in BB's and 9th in plate discipline. To put things in perspective Chen recently faced the Mariners who have struggled vs. LHP and are 7th in plate discipline and they were able to get to him early. Baltimore is also 21st in ERA during day games at 4.31 while the Twins who are 10-5 during day games have the 4th best ERA at 2.98.
The Rockies have not scored a run in the series so you may be wondering why I'm backing them today against the Cardinals who are scorching hot. I just think there is a ton of value at this price. The Cardinals have not hit lefties well in fact the 7 LH starters that they have faced posted a 2.97 ERA and that includes a start where they faced Jonathan Sanchez who could not complete an inning.
Jorge De La Rosa has been great this year and he should be looking forward to facing the Cardinals 27th ranked OPS team vs. LHP. The Cardinals over their last 10 have hit just .169 and 1.82 runs per 9 vs. LHP. De La Rosa has only struggled against teams ranked in the top 10 in OPS vs. LHP. Dodgers and the Brewers got 10 runs off him in 8.1 innings pitched. In his other 5 starts he has a 1.50 ERA this year. The Caridnals will send Jaime Garcia to the mound who has pitched like an ace especially at home, but in 3 career starts against the Rockies he's given up 18 ER in just 13.2 IP. I think if nothing less this game goes to the bullpen where the Rockies have a significant advantage posting a 3.02 ERA on the road compared with the Cardinals league's worst 9.51 ERA at home.
