Atlanta before last night's rally against the Dodgers at home had played 26 of 34 on the road. They had a day off before this series started and it seemed to be worth it as they rallied to win 8-5. The Braves will send Kris Medlen to the mound who has not been as nearly as dominating this year, but he's 2-0 in 6 games vs. the Dodgers with a 2.30 ERA and he has a 2.84 ERA at home. He goes up against a Dodgers team that is 29th in OPS vs. RHP while the Braves will face a LHP where they are ranked 6th in OPS with a .782.
Capuano has had a lot of success in the past vs. the Braves, but he still does not seem to be in the groove of things this year and I also think he'll have a hard time now having to face Justin Upton int his line up who is 5-14 off him and hit a grand slam on Friday night. The Braves are scoring 6.87 runs per 9 vs. LHP at home this year where they have won 39 of their last 56 games. Braves are scoring 1.5 more runs on the season vs. LHP than the Dodgers are vs. RHP and their bullpen is nearly 2 runs better. Those stats are only more in favor of the Braves when we look at home and away splits as the Braves have a 2.40 ERA from their bullpen compared to the Dodgers 5.21. Last but not least Jerry Lane is behind the plate and the home team has won 7 of his 8 behind the plate this year.
A lot has changed since game 5 in Indiana, but the spread has not. The Pacers are due to lose their first game at home and I think it happens tonight. The Knicks were in striking distance for much of the game in Indiana despite shooting 35% and getting out rebounded by 18. A lot of those rebounds were long rebounds that were just unlucky. As Reggie Miller said many times during the broadcast the offensive rebound is the Pacers best offense. The Knicks will have a game plan to avoid that situation and if they can do it they should win this game.
What else is different? Well Pablo Prigioni and Chris Copeland saw significant more playing time. 25 minutes more than in game 4 combined. That's a different ball game for the Knicks as Copeland can stroke the 3 and Prigioni can distribute and make an occasional 3. JR Smiths hot the ball 10 less times and overall the Knicks played better defense without double teaming as much. I expect the same things here tonight and the Pacers are also likely without their PG George Hill (concussion) which is a huge loss. Stating all of that I don't see how the spread is the same as it was for Game 4 so I think we get value on the side of the Knicks.
