The Cubs have quietly been hitting the ball at home all season ranking 3rd in OPS for a .822 OPS at home. They have been clicking scoring 36 runs over their last 5 games while their bullpen has also come together. Cubs are scoring 5.57 runs per 9 vs. RHP at home this year while they will face Ian Kennedy who has struggled with a 4.85 ERA on the road this year and has a lifetime 6.94 ERA vs. the Cubs. Cubs hitters have a .884 OPS against Kennedy and should have a significant edge here with the Cubs throwing their ace out there.
Jeff Samardija has been spectacular this season with a 2.88 ERA at home he's only had one start vs. the Dbacks, but I think he comes out and throws another great game. Samardizja will mix 4 pitches with 70% of his pitches being fast ball and slider. The Dbacks according to fangraphs.com are ranked 28th vs. the slider and 13th vs. the fast ball. They do best when hitting change ups and curve balls which Samardijza will not throw. Kennedy on the other hand does not mix as much with 83% of his pitches being a fast ball change up and those are the two pitches the Cubs like the most ranked 10th and 11th in the league. I look for the Cubs success to continue once again tonight.
I love the Pacers in game 6 here this has been a resilient group all season long and they should be in this game. If it was not for Lebron completely taking over the third quarter they could easily be up in the series as they led at the half on the road again. The Heat can not win with Lebron being the only viable scorer and it is clear the Pacers defense has taken the other Heat shooters out of the series. The Heat are actually playing to what the Pacers do and have gone away from their regular rotation for the most part with guys like Allen and Battier getting less minutes. Now the Pacers don't have Birdman for game 6 which will hurt their rebounding even more. I expect Haslem to play a key role, but just like in game 4 the Pacers did not let Haslem hurt them after they killed them in game 3. The Pacers are also 27-12 after a loss and 18-2 at home. If the loss was between 10-19 points which it was they were 13-1 this year.
