This is an interesting match up, but I will go with the home team with the better pitcher every time. The Red Sox have been red hot with the bats but I think now they go on the road and will be slowed down by Tampa who is 11-1 at home against teams with a winning road record better than .600. They are also 17-5 in Alex Cobb's last 22 overall starts who has a 1.91 ERA at home this year and a 2.01 ERA at night along with a 2.77 ERA in 2 starts vs. the Red Sox.

Red Sox hitters have a .198 average and a .591 OPS vs. Cobb who is quietly in the Cy Young race and has really stepped up big in David Price's absence. Boston is just 6-20 in their last 26 road games vs. winning team so their winning road record on the year is a little deceiving. Boston will start John Lackey who has 4 quality starts in a row, but I think he will falter here as he has never had great success against the Rays or on turf for that matter. He's got an ERA over his last 10 starts on turf and he's allowed 28 ER in just 30 innings over his last 6 at Tampa. Lackey has been getting by with a 33% oustide the zone swing %, but the Rays are #1 in plate discipline only swinging at 25.8% of their pitches outside the zone. This should get them in good counts and if it does Lackey has not pitched well against these hitters as they have a 152 career at bats with a .296 average and a .842 OPS. The Rays are 7th in OPS at home and are averaging 5.5 runs per game while going 18-6 in their last 24 vs. a RH starter.

Where to find Freddy?