I actually love this match up as their is a ton of value to be had on Corey Kluber who has a 3.09 ERA at home this year which includes two solid starts against the Tigers who are one of the most dangerous offenses in baseball. Kluber has been unlucky with a .335 BABIP on the year so his 4.23 ERA do not reflect his raw stats as he is averaging nearly 9K/9 with less than 2 BB/9 which is among the bets in baseball. He's got two starts this year vs. the Royals both on the road 12.1 IP 6ER, but only allowed 13 BR so it's been bad luck. I look for him to seek revenge back at home where the Indians are 18-8 in their last 26 as a home favorite.
Bruce Chen will make his first start after being in the bullpen all year and the Royals are 5-16 in his last 21 road starts. He's got a 2.41 ERA in 33 IP which looks nice in relief, but in reality there was a reason they moved him to the bullpen. His xFIP tells more of the story with a 5.20. The Indians over their last 10 games are scoring 5.73 runs per 9 vs. LHP and in 144 AB they have great numbers off Chen with a .319 average and a .913 OPS. Asdrubal Cabrera looks like he broke out of his slump and is 8-26 vs. Chen.
Orioles look to stay in contention as they open up a 3 game series with the Blue Jays who are also back in contention. Jays start Mark Buehrle who has not been good on the road this year posting a 5.81 ERA and a 5.02 at night. Meanwhile Chris Tillman has a 3.61 ERA at night and his last two home starts vs. the Blue Jays have been good, but more importantly the Jays are struggling. The last 7 RH starters have a 1.84 ERA against the Jays. If Tillman can duplicate that he's backed by a bullpen that has a 2.05 ERA. Baltimore is also 9-3 in their last 12 vs. the Jays at home.
