Boston is 15-5 in their last 20 as a road favorite and despite facing the red hot Royals I like them to continue that trend on Saturday night after losing the first two games. It's going to help a ton that they are facing a RHP again in Jeremy Guthrie who has a 4.69 xFIP and is not even striking out 5 guys per 9. Guthrie also has struggled vs. the Red Sox as 8 of 9 hitters in Boston's line up have an average over .300 and some significantly. Overall they have 192 AB .359 average and a 1.070 OPS. Boston should continue their trend as the best hitting team vs. RHP ranked #1 in OPS .821. Meanwhile the Royals are 24th in OPS .677 vs. LHP which they face tonight in Felix Doubrant, but before we touch on Doubrant it is worth noting that Guthrie is on 4 days rest where he has a 4.77 ERA. He's actually making his 2nd start in a row on 4 days rest which he's done 4 times this season posting a 5.33 ERA. He's coming off a complete game shutout so I expect the Sox to hit him hard.
Felix Doubrant on the other hand is on 5 days rest where he posts a 3.06 ERA in 10 starts, but over his last 6 he's got a 2.11 ERA. This is his second consecutive start on 5 days rest so he's fresh and it's worth noting that over 10 starts on 5 days rest he's given up more than 3 runs just once. Facing the Royals who are struggling vs. LHP on the year (3.83 runs per 9 at home) compared with Boston who is elite at hitting RHP (5.53 runs per 9 away) and I think we have a big advantage.
The Giants have really fallen off the map this season going 8-20 in their last 28 home games is uncharacteristic. They are ranked 26th in OPS vs. LHP and that's what they will face today with Wei-Yen Chen making the start on 5 days rest. Chen has a 1.77 ERA on the road on 5 days rest and a 2.20 overall. He's got good overall splits on the road and a 2.95 ERA during day games and he gets to face the Giants for the first time who are hitting .170 and scoring less than 1 run per 9 vs. LHP over their last 10 games.
On the other side the Orioles get to face Chad Gaudin for the 2nd time this year. They could not seem to get the big hit in the first match up, but he's on 4 days rest for the third start in a row where he has averaged less than 5 innings per start. Baltimore also hits RHP well 5.06 runs per 9 on the road and Gaudin is walking over 3 guys per 9 innings. He's gotten by with an extremely low 5.2% HR/FB ratio, but we won't see him going deep into this game and the Giants bullpen has not been it's usual self lately. I give the edge to the Orioles.
