I've been on the Yankees a couple times the last few days with our free pick. You can check out my blog for both write ups. However, I think the perception of the Yankees has changed to quickly and I think we are catching value on the right side today. I mean Phil Hughes should never be a favorite at home. He's just not built for Yankee Stadium because he is an extreme fly ball pitcher at over 48% which is #2 in the majors. That's not good and it has resulted in 6.18 ERA at home as he's given up 8 HR in his last 4 starts here alone. The Angels are 7th in HR vs. RHP and have plenty of pop with Trumbo & Trout in the line up. Hughes also has not exactly pitched well vs. the Angels posting an ERA over 9 in 5 career starts. Hughes also has a 5.70 ERA during day starts and a 5.51 ERA over the last three years while he's backed by a Yankees bullpen that is worn out right now posting a 5.29 ERA in their last 10.
Angels on the other hand will have C.J Wilson going here who is on 4 days rest, but has pitched great with 12 of 14 quality starts posting a 2.90 ERA. When he's on 4 days rest off a start where he had 5 or more days of rest he gets even better with a 2.31 ERA. Wilson last 4 starts vs. the Yankees he has posted a 2.25 ERA and in 239 AB they are batting .218 with a .644 OPS. Wilson unlike Hughes has good numbers during the day 2.44 ERA and 2.86 over the last three years. I expect a quality outing from Wilson here and for the Angels to hit.
I backed the Nationals the last 2 days as our POD and I'm backing them again with Dan Haren on the mound. First of all there is nothing wrong with Haren. He suffered from giving up too many HR based on the fact that he's giving up a lot of fly balls, but his raw stats are excellent. Facing the Giants who are 29th in day HR, and 29th in HR overall should help him. Overall he's striking out more than 8 batters per 9 and he's walking less than 1.60. Those are elite numbers and his velocity on all of his pitches on average are up this year from last year. His two pitches he throws the most are a fastball & cutter and the Giants are ranked 28th and 29th against those two pitches. He's also been solid in 5 of his last 6 starts and he's making his 3rd start in a row on 5 days rest which should help. Vogelsong and the Giants continue to struggle with the bats and the Nationals look to continue their surge to get into the playoff race.
