Even though everyone is on the Dodgers I still like them at these odds. First of all they have the #1 Day ERA and their bullpen has been as dominating as their offense. The Phillies are actually 30th in ERA during day games and while Cole Hamels looks like himself again posting a 1.12 ERA over his last three those were mostly against poor hitting teams ranked at the bottom of the league vs. LHP. Hamels also comes into this game in a rare situation. He's off a complete game and he threw 120+ pitches. Hamels has only thrown 120+ pitches 3 times in the last three years. he's on 5 days rest his numbers are not that impressive in that situation this year posting a 4.54 ERA at home. The Dodgers just continue to win and hit and are 24-3 in their last 27 road games and they'll have a good shot at win #25 with Ricky Nolasco on the mound.
Nolasco has good splits here 2.76 ERA in his last 3, 2.99 ERA on the road, and a 2.78 ERA during day starts. He also has a 1.82 ERA in 5 road starts on 5 days rest and once again is backed by a bullpen that has been great. Hamels has pitched well of late, but like I said you have to pay attention to who he was doing it against. The Dodgers are just on fire right now while the Phillies are 2-14 in Hamels last 16 on 5 days rest, and they are 3-18 in their last 21 vs. RH starter. Expect them to get a heavy dose of Nolasco's curve ball because they are ranked 30th in pitch value vs. the curve.
I see a lot of value here on the Rockies and it is mostly because Jhoulys Chacin has flown way under the radar. What's ridiculous is that he has a 3.7% HR/FB ratio and he pitches at Coors Field! Chacin simply does not give up home runs and the Orioles are a team that are far too reliant on the long ball. Chacin also has posted a 1.87 ERA on the road this year and a 1.97 ERA on exactly 5 days rest. Feldman on the other hand has a 7.66 ERA at home in limited starts, but is backed by a bullpen that's not pitching as well as the Rockies. Feldman also has to go up against Michael Cuddyer who is having a great season and 7-13 with 2 HR against him.
