Justin Verlander has pitched poorly or not up to his standards all season, but now I see him turning the corner and he comes into this game on 5 days rest with plenty to pitch for as the Tigers are 3 games back of the Red Sox for home field advantage and they are only 7 up in their division. Verlander has dominated the Royals at home and struggled on the road and his last start just happened to be in Kansas City and he struggled. His last 4 home starts have all been over 7 innings and he's posted a 2.03 ERA in those games. In his career he's got a 2.80 and 15-5 record vs. the Royals over 28 career starts. The Royals who come into this game are 18-40 following an off day and are scoring more than 2 runs less per 9 vs. RHP than the Tigers are vs. LHP which is 5.87 at home.
Tigers will face Bruce Chen whose xFIP is close to 5, but his ERA is under 3 so I know I'm getting value in this game even with a big name like Verlander on the mound. MIguel Cabrera has been in a slump mainly due to some nagging injuries but he's got 5 HR and a .405 average vs. Chen who has struggled pitching in Detroit. Chen's last 3 here he's given ups 27 hits in 15.1 IP and 14 ER. Austin Jackson, Victor Martinez and Andy Dirks all have averages over .300 with a lot of success.
