I really like the home dog here in the Bulldogs as they are coming off a bye and hosting Auburn going on the road for the first time all year. Auburn coming into this game off a lucky win against LSU and an easy victory against LA Monroe last week. This team has really struggled to put the ball in the end zone and Miss State held them out of the end zone last year on the road on 4 trips inside the red zone Auburn came away with just 6 points and they held conference opponents a year ago to 43.33% red zone TD%. I donât see any signs of this changing as long as Shaun White is the QB. Shaun White does not have a passing TD on the road in his career and in 7 conference games he has just 1 passing TD and 2 INTâs.
Running the ball will be the key in this game for both teams. Auburn has shown they can run it on bad teams with 5.67 ypc in non conference games (all at home), but just 3.79 yards per carry in conference. In their losses they average 3.40 ypc and in their wins 5.80. Miss State has shown they can stop the run holding LSU in check on the road. LB Richie Brown has been their best player, but they also have a pair of seniors on the defensive line that should give Auburn real issues in Clavin and Jefferson. It also seems like the Bulldogs were saving Cedric Jiles for this game as he returns to help out the secondary after getting injured over the summer.
At the end of the day I like QB Nick Fitzgerald and what heâs shown already. In two conference games he has 208 yards rushing. He has 2 passing TDâs already more than Shaun White. The run defense has already shown some vulnerabilities too against Texas A&M and LSU giving up over 6 yards per carry in both and again those game were at home. Dan Mullen off a bye has been very good the last two years with 4 wins and I think he will have his team prepared here this is a very big game for them. They ran for 290 yards against South Carolina, a defense that held Texas A&M to less yards than Auburn did. There is clearly talent at Auburn and on this defense, but their offense is simply not good enough to stay on the field and Miss State should pull the upset. They are also the less penalized team and have a better handle on turnover margin. Auburn has the edge in special teams expect a lot of field goals in this game, but I think Miss State is the team that can get TDâs in the red zone which will be the difference in a close game.
