The Rangers needed 7 straight victories just to force this game and a little help along the way which they got from the Blue Jays as the Rays barely got by yesterday and lost 2 of three in Toronto. Now they have to travel to Texas to play the next day against a tough lefty. The Rays have a losing record on the road overall and an 11-13 vs. LH starters. Texas meanwhile is 16-5 at home over their last 21 vs. a team with a losing road record. They are also 31-19 this season vs. LH starter and are scoring 6.86 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. LHP while Tampa has struggled at just 3.65.
David Price still gets to be favored because of his name and pedigree and that I can not argue with, but everything else tells me the Rangers are the play and being under dogs gives us value. Price has not pitched well in Texas over his career and the Texas hitters have hit him hard in 129 AB they have a .929 OPS. Price has actually struggled more than you think down the stretch and has not been Cy Young type. Now he could come in and dominate, but I think the Rangers just have an edge here with Martin Perez on the mound backed by an elite bullpen.
The Rays have never seen Perez pitch and he's been good down the stretch and has a 3.18 ERA at home this season. The bullpen for the Rangers has been outstanding with a 1.76 ERA over their last 10 games combined, but more importantly they have more talent and a 1.80 ERA over their last 3 appearances for each reliever combined. Tampa L3 combined has a 4.84 ERA and a 4.44 ERA overall on the road. The bullpen will be what eventually decides this game and the fact that Texas hitters are on a roll right now and have success against David Price and are under dogs leaves me no choice but to back the Rangers tonight.
The Dolphins have cashed a ton for me this year and I did not expect to get this kind of value here again on Monday night football, but getting a TD against a Saints team that is flawed is something I can't turn down.
The Saints are a one dimensional offense that can be beat with a good pass rush which is something the Dolphins clearly have. The Dolphins are actually also top 10 in some key passing defense categories including opponent completion %, opponent yards per attempt, and opponent QB rating. Now the Saints defense has been great allowing 13 points per game and has been tough to score on in the red zone. However, the Falcons are struggling to find consistency, the Cardinals can't move the chains and the Bucs are also struggling on offense. Those are the three teams the Saints have faced this year and any defense would find success in that situation in my opinion. In come the Dolphins who seem to have the perfect balance of running and passing on offense.
Ryan Tannehill is enjoying a great start to this season ranking 6th in completion percentage and 10th with a 94.3 QB rating. What is most important is he's 3rd in moving the change picking up 50% of his third down attempts, and he's #1 in the red zone orchestrating an offense that succeeds with a TD 87% of the time. The Saints defense will be challenged tonight and they will give up some points. I think the Dolphins will have a shot to win this game because this is the best pass rush Brees sees all year and I don't think the Dolphins are prone to give up the deep quick scores that Brees uses to blow out teams on a Monday night. Close win for the Saints 23-20, but we will cover the spread.
