Okay Baylor is averaging 70 points per game over their first 4 games which all have come at home, but Baylor has not faced a defenses and they have not played a road game. Kansas State is definitely down this year, but they still have the best offenses and the best defense that Baylor has faced season to date and I think we are getting plenty of value here at +17.5. Kansas State would love to get revenge on Baylor who ruined their season a year ago and they can do it with the running game.
Kansas State knows how to control the time of possession especially at home. This team has not had the luxury of playing at home, but looked pretty good almost shocking Oklahoma State last week despite being -4 in turnovers they lost by only 4 points on the road. Kansas State continues to runt he ball because they return 4 of their 5 starters from a year ago and rank 41st with a 4.6ypc, and rank 25th in running play %. They average 5.8 ypc while Baylor has not faced a team yet that even wants to run the ball plus they have been up big in every game. Baylor had issues with dual threat QB Kolt Browning while Daniel Sams is really dangerous for Kansas State and should be poised to have a big game running the ball on Saturday. Kansas State's offense is ranked 7th on third down conversions and have converted well in the red zone. Baylor has yet to have any three and outs ont eh season, but now finally faces a defense as Kansas State was impressive in the second half last week on the road forcing six 3 and outs in the second half against Oklahoma State who always has a very good offense.
I think Kansas State can pull the upset as there are still a lot of unknowns about Baylor. One thing is for sure though Kansas State is tough at home winning 9 of their last 10 home games against the Big 12 while Baylor went 0-5 last year on the road in the Big 12 and 1-4 in 2011 with RG3 under center including a similar road game ranked #15 in the country and favorites they lost to Kansas State 36-35. Kansas State's offense is more balanced this year they are +30 yards passing per game and their pass defense is allowing 46 fewer yards led by a very good senior in Ty Zimmerman who is an All American returnee. Kansas State's receivers Lockett/Thompson combo pose more of a threat than Baylor has faced all year.
This is Oregon's most challenging road game in quite some time. Playing in the state of Washington is a stiff task as Husky Stadium is arguably the loudest stadium in the nation. Physical teams give Oregon issues and that's exactly what they face this week.. If you don't think Washington is the real deal go ask Stanford as the Huskies out played the Cardinals a week ago out gaining them by nearly 200 yards and holding Stanford under 300 yards. Washington has enough speed in their secondary and enough strength up front to really come up with something special on Saturday.
Keith Price and Bishop Sankey combo may be the best combo that Oregon's defense has faced in a couple of years. Price is the real deal completing 33-48 for 350 yards against a stout Stanford defense while Bishop Sankey added 125 yards rushing. Washington is a balanced team that's very good in all phases with multiple weapons that can beat you and I don't think Oregon is good enough defensively to stop Washington from being within striking distance all day. Washington is actually #1 in the PAC 12 in total defense so don't sleep on the defense being the reason for why Washington not only covers, but wins this game. They are better on third downs offensively and in the red zone offensively and are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.
Utah could easily be sitting at 5-0 after a couple of tough home losses by a combined 10 points mainly due to being -7 in turnover margin. The fact that they still had chances to win those games against quality opponents tells me that this team is very under rated. They are a gutsy group of players that will always play hard under Kyle Whittingham. Stanford comes into this game with some issues on their defensive line which has created some depth concerns that should benefit Utah big time in this game.
Utah has shown their offense has enough weapons led by WR Dres Anderson and an offensive line that has allowed only 7 sacks and a QB in Travis Wilson who can make all of the throws. This is a very dangerous team in a very dangerous environment for Stanford to be playing after they were beat up by Washington a week ago and have UCLA up next. Utah can runt he ball too and stop the run which are a couple of ingredients that will make this game a must watch as I think Utah could come up with a shocker as Stanford peaks ahead to the showdown against ranked UCLA.
