Clemson vs. Florida State is easily the game of the week. Many look at this game and think it's fishy that Clemson is the higher rank and they are under dogs at home. I look at it as the oddsmakers are forever not taking Clemson seriously because they've come up small in this situation so many times, but I think this year is different and we saw signs of it at the end of last year with a huge upset of LSU in their bowl game. Tahj Boyd is the difference and I'll take a senior QB at home over a rookie QB on the road any day even though Winston is a once in a lifetime QB he just has too much confidence right now and is about to get pressured big time.
Clemson has the 4th best sack % led by Vic Beasley and is #1 in third down defense because of it. That's going to be the difference despite Florida State being led by a veteran offensive line. FSU still has allowed 9.68 sack% this year on the road and allowed 8.15% last year. Winston was able to get away with it against BC and Maryland on the road who brings extra guys to get their sacks, but now he will see a different look when he's pressured, because Clemson only brings 4 guys and leaves more in coverage. I'm thinking Winston will make the mistake as Clemson is +9 in turnover margin with 15 forced. They are also penalized less and their offense will confuse a Florida State defense that allowed 34 points to Boston College. Clemson is an elite offense and they will create a ton of deception before the snap with a lot of movement. It really will confuse FSU and set Boyd up in great situations. Clemson already has been tested in a season changing game to open the season and won and they will do it again as they have beaten Florida State at home 5 straight times (3 as under dogs)
Notre Dame off their bye off a big week and USC is on extra rest here too after a coaching change seemed to be just what they needed. I'll say this about USC they seem to just be pretty good at just about everything. Yes they have shown weaknesses in the secondary in their last two games, but they get back Anthony Brown who is their vocal leader in the secondary for the last two years and will help a secondary that despite recent struggles are 28th in yds/att, 47th in completion %, 41st in opposing QB rating, helped by a great pass rush ranked 19th. Tommy Rees struggles vs. good defenses is well documented and Rees does not have a solid running game to hide it.
Notre Dame's running game did show some live, but USC is great at stopping the run ranked 15th in rushing defense. That should set up a lot of third and longs and Rees is only completing 51% of his passes overall. It's obvious this game is important to USC who has not lost on the road to Notre Dame since 2001. They rested several players that probably could have played last Thursday so they'd be healthy for this game, none bigger than Marqis Lee. This receiving corps will give Notre Dame's secondary a ton of issues. USC also can run the ball too with a healthy Silas Redd returning last week. At the end of the day I'm fading Rees who is the guy that has to make the plays for Notre Dame to win.
