I look at this game as a buy/sell situational game. Washington State's loss against Oregon State at home was not nearly as bad as the final score indicated and Oregon's road win against Washington was not nearly as dominating. Yet 70% of the betting public is taking Oregon at this high number. Washington State turned the ball over 6 times late in that game against Oregon State otherwise that game was a game, but allowing 52 points to Oregon State makes this spread about a TD higher than it would have been. I think we are getting value when you look at California being +38.5 here and losing by a half a point. Washington State actually went on the road as -1.5 favorite and beat California by 3 TD's. Oregon also clearly looking ahead in this spot when you you look they have UCLA and Stanford up next and both hold the keys to their season.
Washington state put up 26 and 28 points the last two years and this offense has clearly improved in its second year with Mike Leach as Halliday has improved his completion % by 11% compared to last year. The offensive line has a lot to do with is ranked 17th in sack % compared to last year being among the worst. Washington State can stay in this game as they pass the ball more than anyone else in the league and are good at it. Oregon's pass rush is not as good as a year ago and they have yet to face a team that can pass the ball like this which is ranked 8th in the nation. Washington's defense is nothing to sneeze at either and was extremely young last year yet they only trailed Oregon 23-19 at the half. I expect Washington State to be in this game and getting nearly 6 TD's to play with is even better. The defense has a bigger and stronger and more athletic front 4 than Washington and the secondary has allowed 9 TD's and 11 interceptions so they are not as bad as what many are thinking, but Vegas is squeezing more and more money out of the public, but I wont' fall for it.
