When looking at this match up you will break down stats and pitching match ups until you are blue in the face. Both of these teams are very comparable and it's a good reason why they are playing in the world series to begin with. Both teams were tops in their league vs. RHP which they'll face today. Both bullpens have the same ERA when you look at their home away splits, both pitchers have similar RAW stats as far as true ERA or xFIP. So on the surface it's very hard to make a decision on this game which is why you are seeing it as basically an even money line spread. Despite that, the public is absolutely pounding the Cardinals to death for 68% of the bets and rightfully so Joe Kelly has an ERA under 3 and Jake Peavy just gave up 7 ER in his last start and an ERA over 5 on the road.
I'm taking the Red Sox because of value here. I think the value is on the Red Sox and it's evident that Vegas is totally fine taking more money on the Cardinals without moving the line and that's because Joe Kelly is over rated. Kelly has come down to life with a 4.41 ERA in three post season starts with a 1.47 WHIP indicating it could have been much worse. When you look over his starts you can see why he's had success. He's faced only 2 teams ranked in the top 10 in offense vs. RHP and he has not faced a top 5 team, but he will tonight. Kelly has been extremely lucky with an 83% strand rate and his 5.73 K/9 and 3.19 BB/9 do not shout sub 3 ERA material. Peavy has better numbers 7.53 K/9 and 2.24 BB/9. Peavy is way over due for a good start in the playoffs and he may not have it here, but I'm still going to back the Red Sox and this offense. Peavy does have 3 starts at this addition of Busch Stadium and a 2.25 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP. He's also had 10 of 14 quality starts this year on 5+ days rest so he should have plenty of confidence going into this start.
Boston is also 38-17 in their last 55 inter league road starts vs. RH starter. 82-32 in their last 114 vs. RH starter in inter league play. It also helps that Dana Demuth who has a smaller strike zone on average is behind the plate because that fits the personality of the Red Sox and it won't help Joe Kelly who has control issues to begin with. There is no surprise that the Red Sox are 17-4 in Demuth's last 21 behind home plate. Lastly, both bullpens have been superb, but the Red Sox bullpen has been better and the Cardinals may have to go deep into their bullpen as I don't think Kelly is going to go deep into this game.
