San Diego State nearly beat Fresno State in regulation if it weren't for a missed FG and I think they match up well on the road against San Jose here. First of all San Diego State is 9-4 under Rocky Long on the road. People are excited about San Jose again, because they just averaged 6.93 ypc in their last game and if you can combine that with QB David Fales you have an explosive offense, but they played UNLV which ranked 120th in run defense while San Diego State ranks 42nd. It's back to having to pass to win a game for San Jose and that's usually not a bad thing for Fales and co, but.. He's missing his top receiver in Noel Grisby and San Diego State has a 9.41 sack % on the road and their all standing defense disguises coverages and blitzes well and I think it will be enough to confuse Fales who is coming off a bad game against UNLV.
A bigger key in this game is San Jose's ability to stop the run. Adam Muema ran for 202 yards last year on just 25 carries, and San Diego State is averaging 5.10 yards per carry in conference play and is 4-0 when they rush for more than 200 yards. Good for them that SJSU is ranked 101st in run defense and is allowing 6.3 yards per carry at home. They have given up two 300+ yard rushing games and are at a disadvantage starting two freshmen in a new defensive scheme that has hurt them all year. San Diego State leads the conference in time of possession for a reason and have converted nearly 51% of their third downs in conference play and 72% of their possessions in the red zone into TD's. San Jose is at 39% on third down and 36% in red zone TD's. San Diego State's 4 losses have come against 4 opponents who are a combined 31-4.
UCLA is catching value here after the stock has dropped, but all they did was lose games they were supposed to against Oregon and Stanford and they played right with Oregon for a half as it was 14-14 at the half. This is a huge game for the PAC 12 South and the winner will be the new front runners to win it and get to the conference championship. Arizona is getting value here after 3 wins in a row, but that was against three conference opponents who have a combined record of 1-15 in PAC 12 play.
Despite the numbers, Arizona's defense is vulnerable. They may be ranked 37th, but facing the best QB in Brett Hundley is about to uncover that. Hundley is backed by a solid running game led by Jordan James and one of the deepest group of receivers led by Shaq Evans, Fuller and Payton. Remember last year's game where UCLA put up over 600 yards and won 66-10. UCLA also held Arizona to 257 yards.
That's because Arizona leans on Ka'Deem Carey too much and UCLA held him to 54 yards on 16 carries which was the last time an opponent has held him under 100 yards. UCLA's run defense has been fantastic with the exception of the Oregon game who has been the only team that has rushed for more than 4 yards per carry on UCLA. They stopped a good Nebraska one dimensional offense cold on the road. BJ Denker has been solid over the last three games which has led to Arizona being favored, but he's faced pass defenses ranked 110th, 114th and 83rd. UCLA is ranked 37th, and 25th in yards per attempt. In the end UCLA will find balance as Arizona is just too small up front in their 3-3-5 scheme that did not fool Hundley a year ago and won't again here. Jordan James will get back to having a big game running the ball and UCLA will get back to playing like a top 25 team.
