Texas got a big win in OT against West Virginia and Oklahoma State lost to West Virginia yet Oklahoma State is a road favorite? That's right Oklahoma State is one of the hottest teams in the Big 12 since that loss. They are flying way under the radar on defense. They are ranked 10th in opposing QB rating and 19th in ypc run defense. Which has resulted in 29% conversion rate allowed on 3rd down and 45% TD percentage in red zone while their pass defense gives up yards they have 16 interceptions leading to a +11 turnover margin. Case McCoy plays mistake free games, but he's going to have to pass the ball here to win and he's not that great.
Texas was really lucky because West Virginia turned the ball over 5 times and they still almost lost. Texas now snuck into the top 25 in BCS, but it's not going to last long. I don't think they can over come some of the injuries that have hit the team with 2 linebackers suffering knee injuries and their main man up front in DT Whaley out along with star RB Jonathan Gray and Oklahoma State can absolutely stop the run.
A couple of X factors that are on the side of Oklahoma Stater are special teams and the ability of QB Clint Chelf to run the ball. Oklahoma State has superb special teams returning ability 25.5 yards/kick return and 15.12 per punt. Texas has allowed about the same on the flip side so Oklahoma State will set themselves up in good field position. Chelf has been solid in the running game rushing for 7.7 ypc and had a 67 yarder vs. Texas Tech on the road. Texas has not faced a capable running QB in a while and we all know their struggles as they are well documented. You don't have to go back to the BYU game just take a look at Iowa State's Sam Richardson's 17 carries for 83 yards. This defense is still vulnerable especially vs. an Oklahoma State team that is turning their trips into the red zone into TD's at a 90% clip on the road.
Miami has great value here in my opinion despite playing on the road after back to back wins. Dukes defense has played great all year, but a closer look reveals why. For one they have not faced a balanced offense all year. Miami is a balanced offense even without Duke Johnson ranking 35th QB rating and 40th in rushing ypc. Duke's defense has played mostly no dimensional offenses as they have faced only two top 75 passing teams and two top 75 rushing teams. Neither one of those teams were able to do both and all 4 had a ton of success at what they are good at. The two good rushing teams combined for 574 yards rushing on 110 carries and the two passing teams were 60-83, 786 yards, 8 TD and 1 interception.
Miami can do both and they are an angry team after two tough losses. I expected last weekend's loss against Virginia Tech after they gave everything the week before against an instate rival and ranked Florida State team. They came out flat and had to play a tough Virginia Tech team that features a top 10 defense. Duke is not a top 10 defense and given what I found out through research above they are not even close! Their offense is not great either as their two QB's have combined for 0 TD and 7 interceptions in the last two games despite winning. Miami has an opportunistic defense and is 19th in takeaways. Duke's win over NC State by 18 points was not as big as the box score shows. They were lucky or NC State is just that bad that Duke was able to get 21 points with two six picks and a kick return TD by S Devon Edwards. Miami will not let that happen.
