Two months ago Stanford dominated Arizona State as Stanford at home was just able to dominate at the point attack and was up 39-7 at one point before holding on to win 42-28. First of all it's never easy beating a team twice and I initially leaned towards Arizona State to win this game and cover the 3 points, but I just think in the end Stanford will wear out the smaller front 7 of Arizona State. I do see Arizona State being more competitive in this game and probably having the early lead. Stanford just is not nearly as good on the road on offense and that should bring this total down as Arizona State will make necessary adjustments to stop Stanford's running game. Stanford never scored more than 21 points in their conference road games and only managed 34 at Army. I see a conservative game to start from Stanford which will relax Arizona State a bit.
Even if Arizona State tries to go we have seen Stanford's defense dominate against the best fast paced speed teams in the country and I really don't think Todd Graham is going to put his QB at that risk as their offensive line is not good enough to hold up. Stanford is 38-18-1 in their last 57 games following an ATS loss and the first games total was at 52. With this game being a bigger game, winner going to the Rose Bowl and both defenses being able to prepare after already facing the opposing offense expect a lower scoring game yet we get 4 extra points.
Michigan State is flat out dominant on defense no matter what way you spin it. People talk about their schedule, but this team is #1 in yards allowed #1 in yards/play, #1 in rushing yards allowed, rushing ypc. They are also #1 in opposing QB rating, #1 in opposing yards per passing attempt, and 4th in completion %. They are holding opponents 1.5 yards less per play under their season average so they are legit.
Ohio State needs to establish the run early, but I think they will struggle even with what they are doing with Hyde and Miller. Michigan State has the corners that can match up 1 on 1 in press coverage and stack the box. The two times that Ohio State faced top defenses (Iowa and Wisconsin) they were at home. This game is on a neutral field against a defense that is better than both Iowa/Wisconsin. I think Ohio State will get their points, but...
Don't sleep on this Michigan State offense. I believe they can beat you with both the pass and run as Jeremy Langford has 7 straight 100+ yard rushing games. Connor Cook is very capable and his receivers have gotten drastically better since the beginning of the year. He has 17 TD's to only 4 interceptions behind an offensive line that's 15th in the country in sack % allowed. Ohio State's secondary is weak and when they can't get to the QB they really struggle defensively down field. This is where Michigan State is going to shock people I feel. People only think of this Spartans team as a defensive team, but the offense really has not been as bad as the stats indicate. When you have a defense that is that good you don't have to take chances. However, in the Big Ten Championship you can especially when all the pressure is on Ohio State. Another X-factor is punter Mike Sadler who will certainly pin Ohio State deep in their territory like he has done all year long.
