I like the under in this game between UCF and Connecticut. The under is 33-16-2 in UCF’s last 51 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. That’s the key as Central Florida is a run first team running it 61% of the time and 65% on the road. Central Florida does not trust their group of QB’s who have 1 TD and 2 INT’s on the road and that’s where Uconn has issues on their defense. If you can pass the ball well then you are a threat to score a lot of points against Uconn.
I think this sets up well for the under as well looking at the fact that both teams come off misleading totals in their last game. Uconn played South Florida and the score was 14-3 at the half, but the final ended up being 42-27 with a ton of points scored in the second half. Central Florida meanwhile played Temple last week and had 25 points despite only 296 yards of offense while going 2-12 on third down.

Both teams are very good in third down defense, and red zone defense which makes me feel comfortable that there will be a lot of field goals. Central Florida struggles to score points when they can’t run the ball. Sure they scored 53 and 47 on East Carolina and Florida International on the road, but both of those teams struggle stopping the run while Uconn is ranked 55th in adjusted run defense. Uconn has really only given up big rushing games to Navy, a challenge in itself and South Florida who has a top 10 rushing attack with a dual threat QB. Uconn even kept Houston’s attack in check.

Where to find Freddy?