A few things working here in my opinion, but first off you have to realize that Alabama's schedule was extremely easy and the defenses they faced were not good. In fact they missed out on all the top SEC defenses and a faced a young LSU defense. You could easily argue that this is the best defense they've faced all year as Oklahoma is top 25 in passing and rushing defense. Virginia Tech arguably would be the best team they faced and you shouldn't be fooled by the 35-10 final score in that game. Virginia Tech actually out gained Alabama as they held them to 206 yards. There were two special team returns for TD's in that game and I don't see that happening again.
So we know Alabama's offense won't be able to just roll through this game, and when you add in the fact that there have been distractions of Heisman Trophy awards and Saban possibly going to Texas before securing a new big contracts and there are a lot of reasons why this offense and team probably is going to struggle in this game. Alabama is 3-10 ATS following a SU loss and it was a devastating one that cost them a 3rd national championship. Oklahoma is certainly going to have more energy in this game.
Oklahoma really only gave up big totals when they faced fast paced teams in Texas and Baylor who both had 80 and 82 plays against them. Alabama is 117th in plays per game so I expect a very vanilla grind it out type of game on both sides. Oklahoma's offense will struggle because in their two losses they could not run the ball and put up just 20 and 12 points. I'm expecting a 20-14 or 20-17 type game
