Temple is a rebuilding team that's just 2-7 on the road and is far from home playing in Houston here on a Sunday. Houston has lost 7 of their last 8 but usually eat up this type of competition going 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a road record < 40%. Houston has played well at home beating Uconn earlier this year and lost to Cinci by only 1 point and have an extra day to prepare for Temple's young team.
Temple has really struggled defensively and that's why I think Houston gets an easy win here. They allow 49.4% form the field on the road and have a -7.6 rebound margin on the road and over their last 5 they are allowing 53.5% from the field. Houston at home can stroke it from distance with a 40.1% from 3 and 48% overall. Temple is probably already looking towards their home game vs. Louisville as this season is already a lost cause, but what isn't is big games vs. big opponents. A game against Houston is not as sexy as their next game against Louisville.
Illinois has been playing terrible basketball for quite a while now and I think it continues on the road where Penn State has been playing their best basketball. Penn State did lose to Illinois on the road by 20 points, but Illinois is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings and 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games on a Sunday. Penn State will get their revenge to win 4 of their last 5. Illinois is just awful on the road shooting 34.9% from the field and I feel the stats will swap from the first match up where Penn State played their worst game of the season shooting 29.8% from the field while getting beat by the refs at -13 FTA and -10 rebound margin. I look for those three stats to reverse in a big way especially since Illinois is -9.8 in rebound margin over their last 5 games. I see a good amount of value on Penn State a team that just went on the road to beat Ohio State as a 13 point dog. It's been a few games since that moment so no hang over effect just flat out confidence.
Another revenge spot for a team that lost on the road to their opponent Sunday. Loyolla lost on the road to Illinois State 59-50 as they shot just 34% from the field and 17% from 3 in that game. Illinois State is not a good road team just 3-6 and since they shoot over 40% of their shots from three I will fade them on the road. The fact that they take that many shots is not good, but the fact that they don't actually hit for a high % is worse. They shoot 31.1% overall from three and are going to have a hard time against Loyolla who is a better shooting team overall and are even more dangerous at home where they shoot 50.4% from the field overall and 40% from 3.
Illinois State also has the trifecta on the road they are -8.3 FTA, -2.4 rebound margin, and -2.1 in TO margin to go along with their overall 39.4% from the field and they are shooting just 25.7% from three over their last 5 games while Loyolla has done a great job in conference play defending the three and held them to just 5-20 in the first match up.
