Tremendous value on this line as it's definitely stretched a bit now that SMU is a top 25 opponent, but this is a completely different team on the road and they don't travel to the Northeast very often. We use their road game against Cinci and their home game vs. Cinci we see an 11 point different in the spread. Cinci already beat Rutgers by 14 at home as a -12.5 point favorites, instead of the line being 11 points different it's only 5 and I would argue it should be more when you factor in SMU lost at cinci by 8 points and won at home by 21 good for 29 point differential.
Rutgers on the other hand had to play Houston on the road and then Houston at home which is very comparable when you take a look at where each team is coming from to go on the road. At Houston they were 4 point under dogs and they lost by 22 then at home they won by 23 as a 3 point favorite. The loss by 22 on the road definitely impacted the line from being -6 or something different when Rutgers hosted Houston, but either way it was a 45 point overall difference. Now I'm not suggesting that Rutgers will win this game outright, but all they have to do is have an 8 point differential. In the first match up they could not have played worse as they shot 32.7% from the field allowed 46.5% and were -15 FTA, -4 turnovers and -4 rebounds. Rutgers providing their players were not out partying all night because of the snow should be well prepared knowing they have a great shot at upsetting a top 25 team.
