I am going to take the Hurricanes as my top play this week as I really think they are getting a lot of value despite losing 3 games in a row. They faced three teams ranked in the top 25 and should have beaten Florida State a hard game to come off of with a loss for this program, but things are trending in the right direction as Mark Richt has this team playing defense and they are clearly much improved. They have had a much more challenging schedule than Notre Dame has and the ACC is arguably the best conference in the nation. Notre Dame has yet to play a defense that ranks in the top 50 in rushing and passing defense, and every time they have faced a top 50 run or pass defense they have lost. Miami ranks 32nd vs. the run and 13th vs. the pass and will give Notre Dame Issues on Saturday.
On the flip side Miami has faced three teams who had a top 50 run defense and pass defense. 5 of their 6 opponents have been ranked in the top 50 in pass defense, and Brad Kaaya, the senior QB is still putting up good numbers. Now he gets to face Notre Dame how ranks 108th in adjusted pass defense, a team that simply canât get to the QB they have 6 sacks on the season and are -13 in sacks compare that with Miami who is +7 and has 22 sacks on the season. Miami also +38 in tackles for loss compared to Notre Dame who is -7 in tackles for loss. I was shocked to see Stanford come in and win their game 2 weeks ago without Christina McCaffrey and no QB, but Stanford did it they averaged 4.40 yards per carry on this defense and got out with a win. The next week they went home and put up 5 points against Colorado.
Offensively, Miami in adjusted offensive rankings are 58th running, and 29th passing. Notre Dame has faced 5 teams in the top 70 in adjusted passing offense. Taking out the NC State game because they played in a hurricane this defense has allowed 39 points per game, and none of those teams were ranked as highly as Miami, and only Texas had somewhat of a balanced attack and they put up 50 points and clearly donât have the defense that Miami has. On the flip side, Miamiâs defense has faced a lot of top offenses, 3 of which have top 50 run and pass offenses. Notre Dame surprisingly doesnât have either as they rank 73rd in rushing and 78th in passing. The only thing Notre Dame has going for them is the fact that they are coming off a bye, but Miami off extra rest here too, and Miami has played well on the road.
