Kentucky +5 4.4* NCAAB POD
Wichita State has been a popular pick for the final four because they return all of their players that got them to the final four last year. Wichita had a little lucking having to play La Salle in the Sweet 16 last year, but now their will be no easy games in their route to the Final Four. Kentucky is young full of freshmen and sophomores, but John Calipari knows how to coach young players he won a championship with a bunch of freshmen just a few years ago. Wichita had the 135th toughest schedule in the land and they didn't play a top 25 team the entire year. Kentucky meanwhile had the 9th toughest schedule and could be 34-1 on the year they only lost 1 of their 10 games by more than 5 points and seem to play their best at the end of the season including an SEC Championship where they almost beat Florida.
The difference will be Kentucky's front court led by Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson and Willie Cauley-Stein as they are all key contributors on both side of the ball. This is an agressive team that tends to get a lot of second opportunities and a lot of FT opportunities and I think it's going to be a real challenge for Wichita here even as a #1 seed. Kentucky was supposed to be a #1 seed themselves when the season started and the public has pushed this spread to 5 points which is just too juicy to pass up when you consider Kentucky only lost by more than 5 points once and it was to top seeded Florida during the regular season
Iowa State will be without Georges NIang, but I think they just have too many options offensively for North Carolina to over come. North Carolina was lucky to even be in this spot when you consider the fact that they were beat by Providence. Iowa State cruised to 93 points in the opening round and had 5 guys over 14+ points so the scoring options are still there. I think North Carolina will try to play at the Iowa State pace, but Iowa State just has the better guard play to do so.
I believe the magic continues as SFU did the unthinkable against VCU, this is a veteran team that can handle the ball well despite being down 10 late in that game SFU controlled the entire game and I think they should be able to hold up well against a team that is young and inexperienced. SFU is top 10 in forcing turnovers as they have turned over their opponents on 24.1% of the possessions while they are great at not turning the ball over. UCLA is the #4 seed and over the last 12 years this is my favorite betting state as #4 seeds as a favorite in this round are 11-21 ATS.
