Dayton has matched up with bigger teams throughout the first few games and they got hot from outside their guard play is tremendous and it really showed against a Stanford team that just was not athletic. Facing Florida they are at a huge disadvantage, because not only Florida control the paint they have the better guard play and have yet to play their best game. I think we saw against UCLA just how good this Florida team is. Dayton is 71st in adjusted defense and will have their hands full with a Florida team that's ranked highly on both sides of the ball I think we see a blow out to start the Elite 8.
Wisconsin has been pretty impressive offensively this post season run, but now they face the #1 defense in the nation and the #7 rebounding team in the nation. Arizona is first in adjusted defense and they have faced 28th toughest offensive opponent. Wisconsin's other 3 opponents this post season were American, Oregon and Baylor none of which play defense as they are all outside the top 50. Wisconsin is a team that lives and dies by the the three point and I think Arizona should be able to defend it. Wisconsin does have some great W's on their resume against top tier defensive teams but they also have a loss to Nebraska who is ranked 28th in adjusted defense. Arizona has yet to play their best game and the only reason their last game was so close with San Diego State was because they got in foul trouble. Arizona can't have that happen tonight because they simply are not a deep team. San Diego State get to the FT line a ton with their agressive nature and that's just not Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is 132nd in FTA per game while Arizona is nearly 4 below the nation average in sending their opponents to the FT line so I expect nobody will get into foul trouble here to change the game. Wisconsin had a lot of trouble with Oregon in the 2nd round and I expect that to continue here against Arizona because this is not the typical defensive Wisconsin team. Arizona is so athletic and should also have a huge advantage on the boards being 7th in the country in rebounding % compared with Wisconsin who is 111th. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the Big Ten and 20-8 ATS in their last 28 non conference games. Arizona wins this one.
The Wizards won last night by double digits over the Pacers so automatically you have to assume an inflated line when you think about how bad the Hawks have been also losing by double digits last night. The Wizards also have the #7 seed Bobcats up next on the road and I don't think they are taking the Hawks seriously since they are 3-0 ATS against them this year. The Hawks though are still 2 games up on the Knicks and have to win these games down the stretch. The Wizards have not been a dominant home team of late and seem to play down to their competition going 3-10-1 ATS int heir last 14 home games vs. a team with a losing record.
