USC +10.5 4.4% PLAY
USC has not been a great road team in recent years, but most of that has been traveling in the Big Ten, this is a travel spot they are used to going on the road to face an old PAC12 foe in Oregon who is now also in the Big Ten. USC realling gaining some confidence, and although they have some injuries on defense, that gets washed by the Oregon offensive injuries particular missing their top 2 WR. I also am not trusing this Dan Lanning defense, which rhas faced an average opponent YPP offense of 96.7, which when you compare that to USC who has faced an average offensive opponent YPP of 64.3. Oregon's opponent average YPP differential is -0.6.
I don't view Oregon's defense as a top unit, and they will be going up against a top 10 offense here that is balanced. They can run and pass the ball ranking top 10 in both. Oregon since Lanning took over 2022 is just 8-7 vs. top 50 ypp offenses, they have only faced one this year and lost 20-30 at home against Indiana. In those games Oregon has averaged 34.26 while allowing 30.8. I think this match up is much closer than the spread, and I think we are getting a couple extra points due to USC's "road struggles." Oregon's big win against Penn State looking worse by the week, while these two teams had two very similar outcomes vs. Iowa.
