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Best Pick
Washington -10.5, despite it being closer than I wanted, and thought I feel like my handicap was spot on, and it was our play of the day winner for the second week in a row. I mentioned that DC Jimmy Lake’s secondary was going to be ready for this USC offense running the air raid offense under OC Graham Harrel, a QB from MIke Leach’s past. Now I knew they’d give up the run, but I said it was just to bate, a 4th string QB in Matt Fink to throw costly interceptions, and that’s exactly what he did, with 3 interceptions. Jimmy Lake’s defense the last 4 seasons vs. Mike Leach’s Washington State, have forced 18 turnovers!
Worst Pick
Nebraska +17, they never got off the bus and you knew it was the wrong pick from the moment the game started. I think Ohio State had something to prove, and the one of my reasons for taking Nebraska was probably the reason Ohio State had something to prove. The last two years in this same situation Ohio State went on the road and lost at Purdue last year, and at Iowa the year before. I thought Nebraska, a more talented team than the aforementioned would pull it off but they didn’t.
Bad Beat of the week
We have had some brutal bad beats this year. I am waiting for the week we don’t have one, but i seems like every week we are on some of the worst beats. This week Air Force -19.5 takes the cake. They are up 31 with 4 minutes to play, and then San Jose brings in their backup QB, because their starter is taking a beating, and he apparently has a rocket arm, and speed. He throws a 30 yard TD pass. 41-17. No problem Air Force gets the ball back and goes for it on 4th and 1 in Spartan territory with 1:35 remaining with their 3rd string QB. Why they don’t punt it there I don’t understand. San Jose State takes it over, and scored another TD, and just like that San Jose State secures the miracle cover.
The bet I regret not making
It was a big dog week so a few made the list.
Hawaii 54-3, they were +2.5 at Nevada - and I just didn’t get why. They covered the spread by 53 points! Others included Utah who won and covered the spread by 20 points, Auburn covered the spread by 22, and I did get in a teaser before game start as that line dropped to 7.5 before game time, which I didn’t understand as they dominated winning 56-23.
MISLEADING FINALS:
Navy did not cover at Memphis as an 11 point dog after leading 20-7 in the 2nd quarter. They gave up far too many big plays in this game. They gave up a 99 yard td return, a 75 yard touchdown run, and 73 yard TD pass while they scored just 3 points in the 2nd half as the veteran Memphis defense made half time adjustments to defending the triple option. Navy was +72 yards, and had 20 first downs to 12 on the Memphis side, but could not convert on 2 4th downs, add in their 2 turnovers, and that’s a total of 4 times they gave the ball to the opposition.
Wisconsin beat Northwestern 24-15, but Northwestern had more yards by 12, and more first downs 21-13. Northwestern had 3 turnovers, and were ½ on 4th down in this game, while giving up a fumble for a TD in a key moment in the third quarter with the ball down 7-3, then went down 14-3. Northwestern fought back scoring 2 more TD’s in this game so I have to give them credit after they were down 17-3. For the third year in a row they held Jonathan Taylor in check, he had 119 yards but it took 26 carries to get there. Wisconsin gets Kent State this week with Michigan State on deck so I’m hoping for a big win as they are 37 point favorites, so we can look to back Michigan State, because Jack Coan did not look great against Northwestern. He seemed very limited and Northwestern was getting good pressure. Northwestern in the dog role again at Nebraska, and they will be in that role over the next 3 games. If I saw anything from the QB position I’d want to take them to win one of these games, but I just haven’t seen any signs that the offensive line can block, and the QB can make any throws and I’m hesitant to fade Nebraska following that loss to Ohio State, they still have everything to play for in their division.
Buffalo lost 20-34 to Miami Ohio despite outgaining them by 133 yards. They were -4 TO’s in this game and had 10 penalties for 103 yards. Buffalo outside the first half against Penn State has not played well on the road. Miami Ohio had only 265 yards in this game. Buffalo back at home in the dog role and Ohio has gotten 86% of the early money chasing this spread up to -3.5, which at that point I’d have to say I lean on Buffalo. Buffalo is a very strong team in the trenches, and I expect they’ll play a close game in what could decide the MAC East Division. Miami Ohio on a bye this week.
Central Michigan was able to get the cover for us at +17, but it should have been much closer. They kept going for it on 4th down and were unable to convert going just 1-4, and turned the ball over 3 additional times. I still think CMU has value as they outgained Western Michigan in this one 437 to 432, and had 31 1st downs to Western Michigan’s 22, but because CMU got the back door cover many are probably thinking this game was far different, but CMu was able to move the ball pretty well between the 30’s. Central Michigan had trouble on the perimeter with Western Michigan’s speed, but other than that they played well defensively. Western Michigan at Toledo this week, and I see 75% of the early money on WMU taking the line down from +4 to 2.5, and I don’t know that I agree with that. I’ll pass that game only because Toledo did just face and beat a physical BYU team. Central Michigan, is a 7 point dog at home against Eastern Mich, and I think they can win the game outright. I want to wait for injury updates on their defensive line, but it’s definitely a game I think they can win although Eastern Michigan is coming off a bye.
Boston College got the cover for us at +6.5 losing by 3, but the stats indicate they should have won the game as they outgained Wake Forest 533 to 440, but had 3 turnovers. I knew BC would be just fine with the talent they have on offense and a quality coach. There will be value to fade Wake Forest in the future in my opinion as they are getting close to creeping into the top 25. I will say Wake Forse converted 17 of 24 on third down and that’s a huge concern for BC who will go on the road and face Louisville as a 4.5 point dog. BC is getting 91% of the money in the early going and the line has not moved a bit. I’m high on Louisville and I don’t know if I can trust BC on the road so it’s going to be a pass for me most likely especially seeing how they could not get off the field against Wake.
Georgia Tech was our free play and the 24-2 final was a bit misleading as Georgia Tech had an 18-17 frist down edge, and were only -17 yards in the game. They had a key turnover in the first half with a fumble on the goal line that ended up being a 14 point swing. Nobody is going to want to back Georgia Tech this week, after seeing that final to Temple and UNC almost upsetting Clemson, but it was clear that TEmple players really wanted to stick it to their old coach, and I think we will have value here with Tech this week, in what should be a close game. Tech’s offense is bad, but their defense has some experience and has been playing well.
Virginia had 5 turnovers and NOtre Dame clearly benefited as it led to at least 14 points. They were up 17-14 at the half, and opened the 2nd half with an onside kick they recovered. Virginia was clearly playing aggressive to get the win. They outgained Notre Dame in this game 338 to 322, and I have some major questions about Notre Dame moving forward, and they’ll likely be favored in all of their remaining games, but I’ll look to fade them. Notre Dame is a 45 point favorite over Bowling Green and it’s an ultimate sandwhich spot before USC next week. This might be a nice spot for Notre Dame to take a breather mentally and physically. Bowling Green off a bye after losing 20-62 to Kent State. I don’t know if I can bring myself to bet them and the MAC has been awful this year out of conference ATS, Notre Dame did struggle with Ball State winning 24-16, a MAC team that went 4-8 a season ago. I’ll dig deeper but I lean Bowling Green.
APP ST 56-37 over Coastal Carolina but they had just 430 total yards. I think we might see some value on the under as you should not have that many points on just 430 yards. They are #3 in the nation behind Oklahoma and Alabama in points per play. They are averaging .756 points per play, and were .516 last year.
Oregon State can’t get over the hump against STanford. tHey lose by 3 despite outgaining them by 148 yards. I still think this ORegon STate team is dangerous as they were also +10 in first downs. They got themselves in a 28 point hole in this game, and this is just typical Stanford getting outgained but winning the game. So I guess it really shouldn’t be in the misleading box score because they’ve been doing this in Pac 12 play on a consistent basis. There is no way I could back STanford moving forward and they play Washington this week as a 14.5 point home dog, and if that goes under 14 I might be a buyer on Washington again, whose offense wants to play agressive. 85% of the money is on Oregon State as a 8.5 road dog at UCLA and that line is down to 5.5, I agree with the move think Oregon STate, is desperate for a conference win while UCLA could not beat Arizona who was without their best two players last week.
Western Kentucky had just 22 yards of total offense and beat UAB 20-13. UAB’s offense struggled as well with only 298 yards, but it was their 4 turnovers that cost them in this game along with their รข?? on 4th down. I don’t understand why teams with limited offenses, and good defenses or going up against a limited offense are going for it on 4th down. I don’t think we have seen so many 4th down attempts, and it’s this idea of analytics driving it, but I think the analytics are definitely not completely accurate. I can’t really figure these two teams out so I’m going to wait and see how they play in conference play.
Other games/notes:
Careful fading Virginia Tech after their 45-10 drubbing at home as a short favorite by Duke. I don’t think there has ever been a lower value put on this team 13.5 dogs against Miami who barely beat Central Michigan at home. I’d lean on them having some fire at least for a few more games. I would probably just stay away. Bud Foster announced his retirement before the season and I always question when a coach does something like that. It’s almost as if it’s to feed his ego, and this team has not looked good this season. Duke on the other hand may be getting too much credit following this win as they are 5.5 point favorite, not a roll I want to back them in against Pitt at home. Pitt ofcourse just struggled with Delaware from the FCS so we are getting tremendous value with Pitt this week. Lean PITT + the points.
Penn State really took Maryland behind the wood shed. I had leaned on Penn State before the game, but really didn’t know much about that team, and I feel like I still don’t. I think Maryland is just that bad, and James Franklin certainly doesn’t like to take his foot off the gas against Maryland a team he competes with in recruiting. Penn State is a 27.5 point favorite at home against Purdue and it’s not a game at night and they have a road game at Iowa on deck. I’d lean Purdue here even after losing their starting QB Sindelar for the season it looks like. Purdue has a ton of injuries and I don’t think I could bet on either side although I do respect Jeff Brohm as a coach and think he can rally the troops.
Arkansas and TExas A&M was a very interesting game on neutral field as Texas A&M failed to covera 23.5 spread, and Arkansas had chances tow in that game late. A&M seemed like they were in a hang over spot after losing their game of the year against Auburn at home. Now back to back weeks of A&M not playing well as Arkansas was +55 yards in this game and +1 in TO margin. Arkansas lost their QB Nick Starkel in this game and it seemed like the entire team picked their game up so it will be interesting to see what happens with this team next, but I can’t buy in on Arkansas after losing to San Jose State the week before. A&M now has a bye, and will have Alabama coming to town, but the only problem is Alabama a 13 point road favorite right now, which I expect to go over 14 by the time next week comes.
TCU bounced back and throttled Kansas had 625 yards to 159. This is a dangerous team if they can find a QB. They played 2 QB’s again in this game, and for Kansas. If you can get an early lead on Kansas and force them to pass or stop the run you should clearly dominate them, because they really don’t have a great passing game. Their 14 points were in the 4th quarter in garbage time. Kansas, will likely be in a big hole this week against Oklahoma, but it’s a huge spread they are being asked to cover, the week before they face Texas, which makes it a pass for me otherwise I’d lean on Oklahoma here. TCU goes on the road to face Iowa State as a 3.5 point dog to Iowa State, I have a future on TCU over 7.5 wins so I’m going to just be watching that, but I do lean TCU. I faded Iowa State last week at Baylor, and won, and I came away less than impressed with Iowa State.
Clemson barely got by North Carolina 21-20. They have one of these every year, which typically sets up for great value for backing Clemson moving forward. They didn’t play well to start the season last year either, but after the scare against Syracuse this team won by 60, 34, 49, 61 all to P5 ACC opponents. Clemson has a bye, and wil have a ton of time to think about this before getting Florida State at home. UNC is getting too much credit for that game and is now a 10 point road favorite at ga tech. I honestly don’t know how much UNC has left at this point with all of their close losses, and looking ahead to their bye week.
