MISLEADING FINALS:
Air Force loses by 11 at Boise, because they could not convert on 4th down going 0-2 while Boise converted 1-1. They were even in yardage 355 to 355, but Air Force had a turnover, and turned the ball over on downs once in their own territory in a tie game leading to easy points for Boise State. They led this game 13-10, and we were holdign a +7 ticket and lose. I’m still high on Air force, and not high on Boise. Air Force hosts San Jose State, who just beat Arkansas, and are 19 point favorites. I would normally fade a team like San Jose after a win like that but definitely not intereste din taking a service academy as more than two td favorite.
Utah vs. USC, I know many are going to not agree with me, but this was a misleading final. Utah out gained USC 457 to 381, but they couldn’t do anything in USC territory. They had 8 drives into the 30 yard line or less of USC. They lost Zach Moss really early which really hur them, and I think they were just unlucky as USC’s backup came into the game they didn’t have a game plan, and FInk was just tossing up prayers in this game and they were delivered as his receivers made him look like Brett Favore catching over doulbe coverage. Oh and Utah had a record 16 penalties. I don’t think I’ve ever seen Utah have that many penalties, but it was ugly. They now host Wash State this week as -5 favorites at home, and I lean on passing the game they typically struggle with the air raid offense, and this team is different without Zach Moss. USC goes on the road to face Washington as a 10 point dog, and I lean WAshington there.
Cal was outgained 525 to 433 in the game and Ole Miss had 27 first downs to CAl’s 24, and they were +1 in TO margin. Cal got the passing game going, but couldn’t throw the ball, what saved them is they held Ole Miss to 5-17 on third down. Cal is a 4.5 point favorite at home this week against Arizona State, no lean for me as Arizona State is usually a tough team in the dog role and Cal is a team I’d prefer backing in the dog role. Ole Miss is a 37.5 point dog at Alabama, which I wouldn’t touch.
Western Michigan outgained Syracuse 557 to 545, but lost by 19 points 33-52. Western Michigan gave up the ball 4 times in this one to Syracuses 2, and they were 1 for 5 on 4th down. I feel like against some teams maybe you shouldn’t go for it on 4th down every time. I feel like it’s the new age way of thinking, and I don’t always necessarily agree with it, and who knows what would have happened had Western Michigan punted in some of those scenarios. Either way, Western Michigan seemed like they were the better team until late, as Western Michigan seemed gassed towards the end of the game. Western Mich is a 17.5 home favorite against Central Michigan not a game I’d get involved in.
Michigan State defeated NOrthwestern 31-10. I heard so many people leaning towards Northwestern +10, but they really haven’t been able to pass the ball at all this year despite having a 5 star QB. I think if you have a one dimensional attack against Michigan State you are going to struggle. The yardage wasn’t all that different in this game and that’s why I felt it was misleading. The difference was the 3 turnovers for Northwestern, and 1-4 on 4th down. Northwesterna big dog again 23 points at Wisconsin, an early game which I like for backing Northwestern, but Wisconsin just seems like a team out to proves something right now, and I’m not stepping in front of that. Michigan STate hosts Indiana as a 14 point favorite at home, the line moved from 15.5 if it heads back to 14.5 I’d lean Indiana.
Colorado State has been on the misleading report a few times now. They lose to Toledo despite 8 yards per carry. Oh they gave up 9.5 yards per carry. They also had 405 yards passing and a 694 to 547 yard edge, and held Toledo to 3-13 on third down having a 36-20 yard edge. 1 turnover killed them along with all the big plays. Toledo is a 2.5 point home dog to BYU this week. Definitely lean towards BYU who has been playing bigger opponents, and hungry for a win. My only questino is how much does BYU have left, and they have to travel again. Colorado State goes on the road to face Utah State, I’ll have to look at Colorado State’s pass defense a bit more, because they held Toledo to just 111 yards in this one, and the strength of Utah State is at QB, and they are getting 24 points.
Nebraska just got by Illinois in probably one of the most misleading finals 42-38. Nebraska actually held a 690 to 299 yard edge, held Illinois to 14 first downs as they had 32, but they nearly lost this game, actually trailed entering the 4th quarter 35-27. There were 5 fumbles in the game, and Illinois jumped on all 5. Very rare to see. Ohio State visits Nebraska as a 17.5 point favorite, and there may be value there. Two of the younger coaches in the Big Ten in Ryan Day and Scott Frost face off on what should be a very good game. Ohio State really has not been tested from a talent perspective, and Nebraska has the goods. I was waiting for a buy signal on Nebraska and I finally got it. 690 yards against Illinois was good to see, and it was even better because it was in misleading fashion. I think the players haven’t had a reason to get up for a game, and now they have Ohio State who has started to really dominate opponents, but they haven’t been tested. Ohio State was lucky to beat Nebraska last year at home 36-31. Lean Nebraska +18
Other Games:
TCU outgained SMU 424 to 406, and they were able to run the ball, but the QB position continues to plague this team. Although the freshman Max Duggan had 3 passing TD he was just 16 for 36. It’s a big play offense, and that worries me heading into conference play against some more powerful offenses as this defense gave up 41 points. This was supposed to be a game they won and now I’m worried about my future bet on tcu over 7.5 wins. SMU meanwhile 4-0 SU and ATS, and head to play South Florida opened as a 6.5 favorite and now 8 point favorites, probably one of the more popular teased plays of the week. I don’t disagree, I think South Florida is awful, but I think there is more to that game anything in the single digits seems too easy with SMU against a team like South Florida. TCU will host Kansas, and hopefully they will get some confidence. Kansas does rely on the run, and TCU has been dominant in stopping it allowing just 2.26 ypc. TCU also will want revenge for losing last year on the road 26-27 to Kansas, they beat them 43-0 at home the year before
Texas A&M was another popular bet by sharps and the public last week. I had it as a possible play, but decided to just watch the game, because my algorithyms actually predicted Auburn to win outright, which they did. The difference in this game was Auburn was able to run the ball and A&M was not. That really shocked me as A&M held Auburn to 19 yards a year ago, and let that game slip away. A&M for many will be a team they fade the rest of the year, but I think they are going to take out their frustration on some bad teams starting this week against Arkansas as 23 point favorites. If Auburn can run the ball and stay healthy this is a dangerous team but they have a tough road trip coming up with 3 road games in a row ending with LSU, but they do host Georgia and Alabama. I just think this team is going to run out of gas and lose 3 games. Bo Nix still does not look good, but he can also get better and take this team on a run.
Miami scored 17 points on Central Michigan, on 303 yards. They had 53 yards rushing. I figured McElwain would have some good games at some point against some quality opponents, besides their 61-0 loss against Wisconsin they have been competitive in every game. Miami has a bye at the right time before hosting a bad Virginia Tech team. THe ACC has really struggled and is going to be a conference we definitely fade come bowl season. Central Michigan was also -2 TO in this game, and the fact that they hung in this game is very surprising. Their spread against Western Michigan is enticing especially since they held Miami to under 2 yards per carry.
ARkansas lost outright at San Jose State as Nick Starkel threw 5 interceptions. I love to pack P5 teams after losign to a G5 team or FCS team, because there is always line value built in, but right now Arkansas just seems like at rain reck. They couldn’t stop the run or pass in this game giving up 7.25 yards per play to San Jose State.
